Africa’s forests have flipped from carbon sink to carbon source

Many people imagine Africa’s forests as dependable parts of the landscape. Tall canopies, quiet understories, and steady green growth give a sense that these places support the planet without fail.

New research now shows a sharp turn in that belief. Forests that once absorbed carbon now release more than they take in. This is a shift that carries global consequences.

Forests reveal carbon change

Researchers examined aboveground biomass across the continent. They used satellite tools and field surveys to track shifts through time.

Africa gained biomass before 2010. After that, losses began to climb. Tropical moist broadleaf forests showed the strongest decline.

These forests once held immense carbon stores. Now they send carbon back into the atmosphere.

Shrub expansion in savannas added some carbon gains, but the increases remained too small to matter at scale. The continent has moved from sink to source. 

Climate impact grows

Africa plays a major part in the global carbon cycle. Forests support a large share of natural carbon removal, even as burning and clearing add emissions.

Strong tree growth once kept the system in balance – but expanding land clearance is now tipping the scale.

Agriculture spreads across forest edges. More people rely on wood for daily needs. Settlements grow into once-stable landscapes.

Less stored carbon means tougher climate targets worldwide. Weather patterns shift, food systems are strained, and wildlife loses dependable habitat. 

Forests and carbon evidence

The researchers used LiDAR from NASA’s GEDI mission, radar from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and optical data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Field plots across many African regions helped refine the analysis. Machine learning connected these sources and revealed change at very fine detail. Earlier studies could not capture these local patterns.

The new work shows strong decline after 2010, especially in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and West Africa.

These regions hold some of Africa’s largest biomass reserves, so losses there shift the continental picture. 

Global warning rises

Professor Heiko Balzter of the National Centre for Earth Observation said this is a critical wake-up call for global climate policy.

“If Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon, it means other regions and the world as a whole will need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more deeply to stay within the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change,” said Professor Balzter.

“Climate finance for the Tropical Forests Forever Facility must be scaled up quickly to put an end to global deforestation for good.”

His message aligns with discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Forest decline rises faster than many plans assume.

Scientists warn that falling biomass may push Africa fully into a carbon-source role when all emissions are counted. 

Why forests fall

Harvest pressure continues to rise. Small farms advance into forest interiors. Export markets increase demand for tropical timber. Many households depend on wood for daily energy.

Fires linked to drought and agriculture sweep into sensitive regions. Shrub growth in savannas responds to rising carbon dioxide, but the added biomass cannot replace dense forest carbon.

Broadleaf forests store far more carbon per hectare. Their decline reshapes the entire continental carbon balance. 

Carbon recovery for forests

“Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large-scale restoration programs such as AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of African landscapes by 2030, can make a huge difference in reversing the damage done,” said Dr. Nezha Acil of the University of Leicester.

Her comments reflect a wider shift in how researchers view the future of African forests. The science suggests that recovery will need both long-term commitment and strong support from governments and partners.

Financial systems and carbon markets also influence how restoration unfolds on the ground. These markets depend on trustworthy data and clear signals about risk. This is exactly where the new biomass analysis becomes important.

Deforestation and the global carbon cycle

Dr. Pedro Rodríguez-Veiga conducted much of the work at the National Centre for Earth Observation and the University of Leicester before joining Sylvera.

“This study provides critical risk data for Sylvera and the wider voluntary carbon market (VCM), and shows that deforestation isn’t just a local or regional issue – it’s changing the global carbon balance,” said Dr. Rodriguez-Veiga.

“If Africa’s forests turn into a lasting carbon source, global climate goals will become much harder to achieve. Governments, the private sector, and NGOs must collaborate to fund and support initiatives that protect and enhance our forests.”

Looking ahead at solutions

The study highlights the need for strong land rights, reliable monitoring, and restoration that matches local realities. Many communities depend on natural resources for survival.

Any solution must respect this while rebuilding carbon across damaged landscapes.

Tools developed by groups like the European Space Agency already support early detection of forest loss. Long-term climate finance remains essential. 

Africa’s forests now face a turning point. Their future will shape the world’s climate path. The evidence is clear, and the timeline grows short. The next steps will decide whether these forests recover or continue to decline.

The study is published in the journal Scientific Reports.

—–

Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates. 

Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.

—–