Experts name the top pandemic threat
Follow Earth on GoogleAsk infectious disease specialists what keeps them awake at night, and the answer might surprise you. It isn’t some jungle fever or a mysterious new pathogen lurking in the shadows. The villain most likely to trigger the next global health emergency has been with us all along.
A survey of 187 experts from 57 countries revealed that 57 percent ranked influenza as the pathogen with the highest pandemic potential. The VACCELERATE Consortium gathered these responses and presented the findings at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Global Congress in Barcelona.
A shapeshifter hiding in plain sight
What makes the flu so dangerous is its relentless ability to reinvent itself. The virus mutates constantly, shuffling its genetic deck with each passing season. That’s why last year’s vaccine won’t protect you this year and why you can catch the flu repeatedly throughout your life.
“Each winter we have an influenza season. One could say that this means that every winter there are little pandemics,” explained Dr. Jon Salmanton-García, who commented on the findings.
Those seasonal waves stay manageable because circulating strains remain relatively mild. The real fear is what happens when that changes.
Controlled chaos until it isn’t
Current flu strains spread widely but lack the punch to overwhelm healthcare systems. Vaccines, antivirals, and natural immunity from prior infections help contain the damage.
But influenza doesn’t play by fixed rules. Viruses swap genetic material when different strains infect the same host. A single mutation could produce something far more lethal than anything our immune systems have encountered.
“The different strains are not virulent enough,” Dr. Salmanton-García noted. “Yet, every season the strains involved change. In case a new strain becomes more virulent, this control could be lost.”
The unknowns ranked second
Following influenza on the worry list came Disease X, a placeholder term health officials use for pathogens that don’t yet exist. Twenty-one percent of respondents ranked this unknown threat highest.
SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, also remained a significant concern among experts. The pandemic demonstrated how quickly a respiratory virus can reshape daily life worldwide.
Lessons learned, vigilance required
The COVID-19 experience did leave some silver linings. Public health systems improved their surveillance capabilities. Populations learned about masking, distancing, and ventilation. Vaccine technology advanced rapidly.
“Preparedness and surveillance are now, vitally, better funded,” Dr. Salmanton-García observed.
Still, the survey’s message is clear. Despite everything the world learned from COVID-19, the threat of a severe influenza pandemic remains a pressing global health priority. The enemy we know best may pose the greatest danger precisely because we’ve grown comfortable living alongside it.
The research was presented at the ESCMID Global Congress.
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