Expanding oil and gas fields threaten global climate goals

Climate change is already making itself felt through record-breaking wildfires, worsening floods, and rising global temperatures.

In this context, the question arises: can we afford to keep opening new oil and gas fields? According to a new report, the answer is a firm no – especially when it comes to the North Sea.

The scientists behind the report are from University College London, with expertise across the UCL Energy Institute, UCL Department of Political Science, and UCL Policy Lab. The team argues that new North Sea oil and gas licenses directly contradict the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Climate impact of oil and gas fields

The report calls on the UK Government to stop issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses. It also urges denying development consent for fields that are already licensed.

That includes major projects like Rosebank and Jackdaw. Both fields had previously received approval, but a Scottish court overturned those approvals in January.

The court ruled that the climate impacts of burning the extracted oil and gas were not fully considered in environmental impact assessments.

The study comes at a pivotal time. The UK Government is currently weighing two key decisions: whether to re-approve the development of Rosebank and Jackdaw. It is also considering how to move forward with its policy of ending new licensing altogether.

No new oil licenses

These decisions come in the context of a two-step process typically used in the UK. First, companies receive a license to explore an area for oil and gas. If they discover a viable field, they can then apply for development consent to begin extraction.

The researchers recommend halting this process entirely. They advise the government to stop awarding new licenses and to refuse extraction approvals for fields already explored but not yet developed.

“Climate impacts are already threatening people’s homes, our farming, and our economy, so reducing emissions is now urgent,” said lead author Greg Muttitt.

“We’ve brought together the peer-reviewed scientific literature on oil and gas, which sends a clear message: there’s no room for new fields to be opened. When you’re in a hole, you have to stop digging.”

Climate targets already at risk

To build their case, the researchers examined a large body of climate science, including studies published in leading scientific journals.

The results of the analysis are stark. Even burning oil and gas from currently operating or developing fields would push global temperatures past the 1.5°C limit.

Current estimates place the world’s “committed emissions” – those that will come from already existing oil and gas operations – at about 469 gigatons of carbon dioxide. That’s around three times the amount that would push the Earth past the 1.5°C threshold.

Legal and political momentum

With Rosebank and Jackdaw pending decisions, the UK Government faces pressure to fully consider their climate impacts.

Dr. Fergus Green is an associate professor in the UCL Department of Political Science. “Our report lays out the evidential basis for rejecting new field development consents on climate grounds,” he said.

“This is a real chance for the UK Government to show world leadership in an important aspect of climate action.”

“Ending new licenses and consents for oil and gas exploration and production would send a powerful signal to the rest of the world about the need to stop expanding fossil fuel production.”

Economy meets climate action

The UCL team also emphasized that continuing to invest in new oil and gas fields is risky – not just for the planet, but also financially.

As the world shifts toward renewable energy, fossil fuel investments may become “stranded assets,” delivering poor returns or even becoming worthless.

“The planet has a limited remaining carbon budget and oil and gas production from existing fields is already likely to exceed this limit,” said Professor Steve Pye from the UCL Energy Institute.

“It’s critical that in order to meet climate goals under the Paris Agreement, no new oil and gas fields should be permitted.”

Why the Paris target matters

The Paris Climate Agreement, signed by nearly 200 nations in 2015, outlines a target to keep global warming “well below” 2°C, with a push to limit it to 1.5°C. That half-degree may not seem like much, but it marks the difference between manageable and catastrophic climate disruption.

The 1.5°C threshold is widely seen as the limit beyond which the risks of irreversible damage – like more extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and crop failures – become much more dangerous.

The message from the researchers is clear: expanding oil and gas extraction isn’t just unwise – it’s incompatible with climate goals we’ve already committed to.

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