Maya cities grew when rural life became risky

Imagine living in a small farming village, working the same soil your parents did. Water is scarce, droughts come often, and the nearest neighbor lives miles away.

One day, word spreads that people are gathering near a big reservoir. There’s food, trade, and safety in numbers. You pack your things and move closer. A city begins to form.

That story played out thousands of years ago in the forests of Central America. The people were the Classic Maya, and their cities – like Tikal and Calakmul – became some of the most impressive urban centers in the ancient world.

But their story also holds lessons for modern life: what makes people build cities, and why do they leave?

Researchers from the University of California, Santa Barbara, California Polytechnic State University, and other institutions explored this question in a new study.

The team found that the rise and fall of Maya cities followed patterns we still see today. Climate change, social conflict, and economic opportunity worked together to draw people in – and later, to push them away.

Why people joined cities

Urban life is expensive, even in ancient times. Disease spreads faster, food costs more labor, and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands.

Yet, according to archaeologist Douglas Kennett, ancient farmers still chose the city over the countryside because the benefits once outweighed the drawbacks.

“We determined that the rise and expansion of Classic Maya cities resulted from the interaction of climate downturns, intergroup conflict and the presence of strong economies of scale realized through capital investments in agricultural infrastructure,” Kennett said.

In simple terms, bad weather, wars, and shared farming investments pulled people together. The Maya built canals, terraces, and reservoirs that helped them survive when rain failed. Those projects demanded cooperation.

Working together meant security and better harvests. A city offered stability when the countryside became too uncertain.

But it also created inequality. The first settlers gained control of resources, while newcomers paid the cost. City life brought safety and food – but at a social price.

What pulled people in

The study used data on rainfall, population changes, and evidence of warfare carved on stone monuments. It showed that dry periods often coincided with city growth.

Droughts hit smaller farms hardest, forcing families to migrate toward areas with stable water supplies.

Conflict added another layer. When villages fought, larger centers offered defense. Joining a city reduced the risk of attack, even if it meant surrendering independence. That mix of necessity and opportunity created a powerful pull toward urban life.

As cities expanded, leaders organized labor and managed large-scale projects. Those in charge controlled both water and people.

Over time, that authority turned into hierarchy. Urban life became structured, with kings, workers, and farmers locked into an unequal yet functional system.

Kennett and his collaborators described this as a dynamic, not a single cause. Climate, conflict, and economics blended in ways that made urbanization both logical and fragile.

“These factors promoted the coevolution of urbanism, systemic inequality and patron-client relationships in cities,” said Kennett.

Why Maya cities fell

The same forces that built cities also tore them apart. The researchers found that when the environment recovered, the balance changed. Rain returned, soil fertility improved, and the rural landscape looked inviting again. Farmers no longer needed the collective infrastructure that once kept them alive.

The researchers found that people began leaving the cities when city life stopped being worth the cost. The land around cities had become damaged, while the climate improved in rural areas – making village life more comfortable, independent, and appealing.

City residents faced a tough choice: stay in crowded centers where land grew poor, or move out to the countryside where life was simpler and freer. Many chose the latter. Urban centers emptied as families reclaimed rural independence.

Interestingly, the decline of Maya cities happened during better weather, not worse. “The biggest surprise for me was that the abandonment of cities occurred under improving climatic conditions,” Kennett said.

“We have long thought that the decline of Classic Maya cities partially resulted from an extended period of drought. It turns out to be a much more complicated and interesting story.”

Better weather didn’t save the cities – it made them unnecessary.

Lessons beneath the ruins

The study also revealed how inequality played into both rise and collapse. Cities thrived when cooperation benefited everyone. Once the powerful took too much, resentment grew. Without balance, the social system fractured. Some cities faded slowly; others fell abruptly.

Archaeological evidence shows that when urban agriculture failed, forests reclaimed the land. Canopies grew back, soil nutrients recovered, and wildlife returned. The cycle of growth and retreat reset the landscape – just as it had done before humans arrived.

The Maya story isn’t one of simple collapse. It’s a story of adaptation. People shifted between collective and independent living based on what worked best for survival. That flexibility kept the culture alive long after its great cities disappeared.

Why Maya cities matter

More than half of humanity now lives in cities. By 2050, that number will rise to nearly 70 percent. Yet our cities face many of the same pressures the Maya did: climate change, inequality, and strained resources.

McCool and his team believe understanding the past can help manage the future. Their population ecology model links human behavior with environmental and economic limits. It explains how people decide whether staying together helps – or hurts – them.

In the Maya case, cooperation built prosperity, but overexploitation and inequality broke it. Modern societies face a similar balance. Cities will continue to thrive only as long as their benefits exceed their costs.

The Maya once built great urban networks in the jungle, sustained by ingenuity and community. When the balance tipped, they walked away. Their story reminds us that urban life is not destiny – it’s a choice, shaped by the world we create around us.

The study is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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