Rising temperatures linked to higher cancer rates among women

Cancer rates in women are creeping up in the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, the region is experiencing some of the fastest-rising temperatures in the world.

New research suggests the two trends may be connected. Breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancers are not just becoming more common – they are becoming more deadly.

The study was conducted by researchers from the American University in Cairo. The team analyzed how rising ambient temperatures from 1998 to 2019 have coincided with higher rates of cancer in 17 countries across the region.

“As temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises – particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said Dr Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria of the American University in Cairo.

“Although the increases per degree of temperature rise are modest, their cumulative public health impact is substantial.”

A region under pressure

Environmental health is deteriorating as climate change accelerates. Warmer temperatures, air pollution, and food insecurity increase vulnerability to a wide range of diseases.

Healthcare systems in many of these countries are also strained by climate-related disasters and economic instability. In this context, access to screening and treatment becomes more limited – especially for women.

The researchers looked at Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries are already experiencing intense heat.

Data on the prevalence and mortality rates for the four cancers was analyzed alongside average annual temperature changes over two decades.

“Women are physiologically more vulnerable to climate-related health risks, particularly during pregnancy,” said co-author Dr Sungsoo Chun of the American University in Cairo.

“This is compounded by inequalities that limit access to healthcare. Marginalized women face a multiplied risk because they are more exposed to environmental hazards and less able to access early screening and treatment services.”

Cancer trends and rising temperatures

For every 1°C rise in temperature, ovarian cancer prevalence rose the most – and breast cancer the least. The increase ranged from 173 to 280 cases per 100,000 people.

Cancer-related deaths followed a similar trend, rising by 171 to 332 deaths per 100,000 per degree Celsius. Ovarian cancer again showed the highest jump, while cervical cancer showed the smallest.

However, these increases were not seen across the board. Only six countries – Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Syria – showed a measurable increase in both prevalence and mortality. These countries tend to have hotter summers, but other unknown factors may also be at play.

In Qatar, for example, breast cancer rates rose by 560 cases per 100,000 people for each 1°C of warming. In Bahrain, the increase was smaller – 330 per 100,000. The difference suggests that temperature is not the only variable influencing risk.

“Temperature rise likely acts through multiple pathways,” said Chun. “It increases exposure to known carcinogens, disrupts healthcare delivery, and may even influence biological processes at the cellular level. Together, these mechanisms could elevate cancer risk over time.”

Factors driving higher cancer rates

It’s possible that more people are being diagnosed due to better screening programs. But improved screening should lead to earlier detection and lower mortality – not higher.

The fact that both diagnoses and death rates increased points to more significant exposure to harmful environmental factors.

“This study cannot establish direct causality,” noted Mataria. “While we controlled for GDP per capita, other unmeasured factors could contribute.”

“Nonetheless, the consistent associations observed across multiple countries and cancer types provide compelling grounds for further investigation.”

Climate change is becoming a health crisis

The research makes one thing clear: climate change is not just an environmental issue. It’s a health issue – and it’s affecting women in vulnerable regions in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

“Strengthening cancer screening programs, building climate-resilient health systems, and reducing exposure to environmental carcinogens are key steps,” said Chun. “Without addressing these underlying vulnerabilities, the cancer burden linked to climate change will continue to grow.”

This study serves as a call to action for public health leaders in climate-vulnerable regions. As temperatures continue to rise, protecting women’s health will require more than just medical help – it will also require environmental solutions.

The full study was published in the journal Frontiers in Public Health.

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