Today’s children will face more climate extremes than ever before

Children born today are stepping into a world that is increasingly defined by climate extremes.

Heatwaves, floods, wildfires, droughts, and tropical cyclones are occurring more often and with greater intensity. As global temperatures continue to rise, these extreme events are projected to grow even more severe.

More than any generation before them, young people face a future that will be shaped by climate uncertainty.

A world of climate extremes

New research from scientists at Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) paints a startling picture.

The study shows that today’s children will likely experience a much higher number of climate extremes over their lifetime compared to those born just a few decades earlier. And in many parts of the world, these experiences will be without historical precedent.

“In 2021, we demonstrated how children are to face disproportionate increases in extreme event exposure – especially in low-income countries,” said Wim Thiery, professor of climate science at VUB and senior author of the study.

“Now, we examined how the cumulative exposure to climate extremes across one’s lifetime will far exceed that which would have been experienced in a pre-industrial climate.”

An unprecedented life

The study introduces a concept called an “unprecedented life.” According to Dr. Luke Grant, the study’s lead author, living an unprecedented life means that, without climate change, one would have less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of experiencing that many climate extremes across one’s lifetime.

“This is a stringent threshold that identifies populations facing climate extremes far beyond what could be expected without man-made climate change,” said Dr. Grant.

The scientists arrived at these conclusions by combining demographic data with projections from climate models.

This allowed them to calculate, for every region on Earth, the percentage of people born between 1960 and 2020 who are expected to live through an unprecedented number of climate extremes.

A future defined by climate extremes

The findings revealed a clear generational divide. The younger someone is, the more extreme events they are likely to endure.

Even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, more than half (52%) of children born in 2020 will face a lifetime of unprecedented heatwaves. In contrast, only 16% of those born in 1960 would face such extremes.

“By stabilizing our climate around 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, about half of today’s young people will be exposed to an unprecedented number of heatwaves in their lifetime. Under a 3.5 °C scenario, over 90% will endure such exposure throughout their lives,” noted Dr. Grant.

“The same picture emerges for other climate extremes examined, though with slightly lower affected fractions of the population. Yet the same unfair generational differences in unprecedented exposure is observed.”

And geography matters. Children in tropical countries are especially vulnerable – even under a 1.5°C warming limit.

If emissions continue on their current path, nearly every child on Earth could end up facing a future defined by extreme events.

Inequality makes the crisis worse

The research also highlights the injustice of climate change. Children who are more likely to be exposed to extreme events are most often living in poorer countries that are the least equipped to respond. These communities often lack the infrastructure and resources needed to adapt or recover.

“Precisely the most vulnerable children experience the worst escalation of climate extremes. With limited resources and adaptation options, they face disproportionate risks,” said Thiery.

Under current policies, 95% of the most socioeconomically vulnerable children born in 2020 are expected to live through unprecedented heatwave exposure. For the least vulnerable group, that number is 78 percent.

Urgent action is needed

The timing of this study is no coincidence. It arrives as world leaders prepare for COP30 in Brazil, where new climate commitments will be on the table.

Right now, existing policies put the planet on a path toward approximately 2.7°C of warming this century. The scientists behind this study, along with global advocates, are calling for stronger, faster action to keep warming below 1.5°C.

“Across the world, children are forced to bear the brunt of a crisis they are not responsible for,” said Inger Ashing, CEO of Save the Children International.

“Dangerous heat that puts their health and learning at risk; cyclones that batter their homes and schools; creeping droughts that shrivel up crops and shrink what’s on their plates. Amid this daily drumbeat of disasters, children plead with us not to switch off.”

Protecting children from climate extremes

This new research shows there is still hope, but only if we act urgently and ambitiously to limit warming temperatures rapidly to 1.5 °C. We need to put children front and center of our response to climate change.

“With global emissions still rising and the planet only 0.2 °C away from the 1.5 °C threshold, world leaders must step up to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lessen the climate burden on today’s youth,” concluded Thiery.

The study doesn’t just offer a warning – it offers a choice. Today’s decisions will shape the future lives of millions of children, including how many climate extremes they will have to endure.

The full study was published in the journal Nature.

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