Why many people don't leave during disaster evacuations

When disaster strikes, official warnings and evacuation orders fill the airwaves. But not everyone leaves. The reasons behind this choice go far beyond ignoring directions. Social roles, local knowledge, and personal priorities often outweigh government advisories.

A new study from researchers at The Yale School of the Environment sheds light on why many people stay put even when facing life-threatening emergencies.

The disconnect in disaster evacuation

“There’s more to the story of non-evacuation than what literature and popular conversation suggests,” said Evan Singer, a doctoral student who led the study.

“People who don’t evacuate are often acting rationally and with ample information. It’s just that they’re acting on different information, leading to this disconnect between state and local actors.”

The study reveals that the gap between government officials and local communities is not just about information shortages. Instead, it’s about different interpretations of risk and priorities.

This mismatch can lead people to make decisions that seem irrational to authorities but are entirely logical within their own contexts.

Published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the study emphasizes the importance of understanding community perspectives, especially as extreme weather events become more frequent.

Global stories of staying put

To explore these differences, the researchers analyzed interviews, observations, scientific literature, and media reports from Japan, Indonesia, and the United States. Each region offered unique insights into how people perceive and respond to natural disasters.

In South Florida, for example, Andrés Triana Solórzano observed a unique phenomenon: hurricane “parties.”

Neighbors who choose to shelter in place gather together, sharing food, drinks, and advice as storms approach. These gatherings are more than social events – they are acts of community solidarity and mutual support.

In Japan, Shoko Yamada studied disaster preparedness after the devastating 2018 floods and mudslides. Her findings showed that older residents often relied on family advice over government instructions.

Some were physically unable to evacuate without help. Others stayed to support vulnerable neighbors, prioritizing community ties over personal safety.

Michael Dove, whose research spans four decades, focused on Mount Merapi, an active and deadly volcano on the Indonesian island of Java. His work highlighted stark differences between government strategies and local community responses.

Staying close to disaster

Mount Merapi looms over Yogyakarta, a city of nearly 400,000 people. It last erupted in 2023.

The Indonesian government closely monitors the volcano and has repeatedly tried to relocate highland farmers living on its slopes. The goal is to prevent casualties and maintain control during disaster.

But the farmers see things differently. They are deeply connected to their land and livelihoods. While they may temporarily evacuate during eruptions, they reject permanent relocation. To these farmers, the peaceful periods between eruptions are what matter most.

“They don’t want to evacuate. They know the state would remove them to less favorable outposts and have made peace with the danger of living so close to Mount Merapi,” Dove explained.

This difference in focus – immediate danger versus long-term survival – explains why many villagers stay despite the risks.

Solidarity in the storm

In the United States, a similar pattern emerges. Gulf Coast officials issue detailed storm warnings and evacuation orders, yet some residents choose to stay.

Triana Solórzano noted that these individuals are not unaware of the risks. Instead, they prioritize community responsibilities and future recovery over evacuation. Hurricane parties are a reflection of this mindset, where people find strength in solidarity.

In Japan, the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami killed over 18,000 people. Some of those who stayed behind did so to help others evacuate.

During the 2018 floods, many older residents relied more on advice from family and neighbors than on official directives.

Japanese disaster preparedness advocates are now pushing for evacuation plans that consider these social dynamics.

Improving disaster evacuation plans

The research team believes that acknowledging these diverse perspectives can enhance disaster response strategies. By incorporating community concerns and values into evacuation plans, governments can improve safety outcomes.

“There’s a lot of emphasis on reaching different groups with more emergency information, which I think should continue,” Singer said.

“But understanding that people operate using different information, as well as sometimes not enough information, is a really important distinction for policymakers.”

The study’s comparative approach – balancing residents’ long-term concerns with immediate safety – offers valuable insights for improving disaster preparedness and response.

The full study was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

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