Antarctica’s coldest regions are warming faster than predicted

Until recently, scientists had almost no long-term data from the interior of Antarctica. Only two staffed bases – Vostok and Amundsen-Scott – recorded climate details for extended periods.

To get a clearer picture, researchers used automated weather stations at Dome Fuji, Relay, and Mizuho. These stations have been active since the 1990s.

The 30-year dataset built from the weather stations revealed a striking trend: warming of 0.45 to 0.72°C (0.81 to 1.30°F) per decade. That is higher than the global average. Most of this warming occurs between October and March, when spring heat lingers into summer.

Ocean changes are heating Antarctica

The Southern Indian Ocean is heating up, and that matters for Antarctica. Rising sea surface temperatures there have sharpened the Subtropical Frontal Zone, where warm and cold waters collide. This zone strengthened by about 20 percent in three decades, a dramatic shift that alters the balance of the atmosphere above.

Stronger fronts changed circulation patterns, producing a dipole of low pressure in the mid-latitudes and high pressure over Antarctica. That high-pressure system pulls warm air southward and drives it deep inland, into regions once thought untouchable by external climate forces.

The process brings warmer air and keeps it in place, stretching heat deeper into the ice. A region once seen as distant and untouched is now reacting strongly to faraway ocean changes. This warming pathway shows how fragile Antarctica has become and makes it clear that no part of the Earth is truly separate.

Shifts in climate rhythms

Large-scale climate oscillations add more complexity. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, during its negative phase, speeds up trade winds across the Pacific. Stronger winds push more warm water into the Indian Ocean, raising its heat content.

The Southern Annular Mode usually acts as a brake, keeping warm air out of Antarctica. But the intensifying frontal zone has weakened that barrier. The result is clear: warmer air keeps penetrating deep into East Antarctica.

Pressure patterns amplify warming

The Mascarene High, a dominant high-pressure system in the Indian Ocean, has also moved eastward in recent decades. That migration further reinforces the Subtropical Frontal Zone. Scientists suggest this shift is not purely natural.

Human-driven warming likely influences the position of the Mascarene High, making the system more effective at funneling heat south. The result is a more vulnerable Antarctic interior, exposed to both natural variability and rising global temperatures.

The contrast between inland and coastal regions is sharp. Coastal Antarctica has so far avoided significant warming. Steep ice slopes act as barriers, deflecting warm air into jets that run parallel to the coast.

Thick sea ice helps as well, covering waters that could otherwise release heat. Still, these defenses are weakening. Since 2016, Antarctic sea ice has fallen dramatically, hitting record lows in 2023. If this trend continues, coastal regions will no longer remain shielded.

Consequences for the world

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet stores most of Earth’s freshwater. Even minor warming increases the risk of accelerated ice loss and rising seas.

Climate models have not fully captured the mechanisms now identified, meaning projections may underplay the scale and speed of change.

“While interior regions show rapid warming, coastal stations have not yet experienced statistically significant warming trends. However, the intensified warm air flow over 30 years suggests that detectable warming and surface melting could reach coastal areas like Syowa Station soon,” noted Professor Naoyuki Kurita from Nagoya University.

Antarctica is warming fast

This research changes how we see Antarctica. For years, scientists believed the continent’s interior was largely immune to the forces of climate change. That belief has now been overturned.

The data reveal that East Antarctica, once considered stable, is warming faster than expected, pushed by shifts in the Southern Indian Ocean and changes in atmospheric pressure.

The implications go far beyond the ice itself. With so much of the world’s freshwater locked inside Antarctica, even modest warming can trigger ice loss that raises sea levels.

Those rising seas will reshape coastlines, pressuring governments, displacing communities, and forcing hard decisions about adaptation. What happens at the South Pole will not stay there.

The continent is no longer quiet in the face of warming. It is responding, and its response will touch everyone – from island nations already battling saltwater flooding to sprawling cities bracing for stronger storms and the cost of constant rebuilding.

Antarctica’s shifting climate is not a distant curiosity. It is a warning signal, a reminder that Earth’s systems are deeply connected and can change much faster than we once imagined.

The study is published in the journal Nature Communications.

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