Cancer deaths to rise 75% by 2050 - what’s driving the surge?

A sweeping new analysis projects that cancer will continue rising worldwide through mid-century. By 2050, tens of millions more people will be diagnosed, and many millions will die.

Most of that growth will not come from cancers becoming deadlier but from more people living longer in fast-growing countries. The burden will fall heaviest on places with the fewest resources.

The research, led by the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators, combined information from registries, mortality records, and interviews across 204 countries and territories.

The researchers tracked 47 cancer types and 44 risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and then forecast trends to 2050.

Unequal access fuels cancer crisis

Cancer remains a major global health challenge, and researchers expect it to rise sharply in the coming decades – especially in countries with fewer resources.

Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is the study’s lead author.

“Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain underprioritized in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge in many settings,” she said.

“Ensuring equitable cancer outcomes globally will require greater efforts to reduce disparities in health service delivery such as access to accurate and timely diagnosis, and quality treatment and supportive care.”

Cancer cases set to double

In 2023, there were an estimated 18.5 million new cancer cases and 10.4 million deaths (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers).

Since 1990, that represents a 105 percent jump in incidence and a 74 percent rise in deaths. Looking ahead to 2050, the study projects 30.5 million new diagnoses and 18.6 million deaths in a single year, with more than half of new cases and about two-thirds of deaths in low- and middle-income countries.

Crucially, when researchers adjust for population age, they find that global incidence and mortality rates are not forecast to climb. That means the raw growth is largely a demographic issue: more people, and more older people.

Still, the trend line falls far short of the UN goal of cutting premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases by one-third by 2030.

Cancer rates shift unevenly

Age-standardized cancer death rates dropped 24 percent globally between 1990 and 2023. However, higher-income settings concentrated that improvement. In low-income and lower-middle-income countries, age-standardized incidence rose 24 percent and 29 percent, respectively.

Some nations saw dramatic shifts: Lebanon recorded the largest percentage increases in both incidence and mortality rates; the United Arab Emirates saw the largest incidence decrease; and Kazakhstan experienced the sharpest drop in mortality rates.

In 2023, breast cancer led new diagnoses worldwide for both sexes combined. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancers remained the leading causes of cancer death.

Prevention could save millions

The study attributes 42 percent of cancer deaths in 2023 – about 4.3 million – to known, potentially modifiable risk factors. Behavioral risks dominate across income levels.

Tobacco alone accounts for 21 percent of cancer deaths globally. In low-income countries, unsafe sex is the leading risk, linked to 12.5 percent of cancer deaths.

The risk profile differs by gender. In men, 46 percent of cancer deaths were tied to modifiable risks, led by tobacco, unhealthy diet, high alcohol use, workplace exposures, and air pollution.

In women, 36 percent of cases were linked to these risks, led by tobacco, unsafe sex, unhealthy diet, obesity, and high blood sugar.

“With four in 10 cancer deaths linked to established risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet, and high blood sugar, there are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives,” said study co-author Theo Vos from IHME.

“Reducing the burden of cancer across countries and worldwide demands both individual action and effective population-level approaches to reduce exposure to known risks.”

Health care gaps fuel cancer crisis

As populations age and grow, LMICs face a surge with fragile systems. Screening is patchy. Pathology and radiotherapy are scarce. Medicines and palliative care are uneven. The authors argue that policymakers must embed prevention in health policy and expand access to treatment.

“The rise of cancer in LMICs is an impending disaster,” said study co-author Meghnath Dhimal from the Nepal Health Research Council.

“There are cost-effective interventions for cancer in countries at all stages of development. These cancer burden estimates can help broaden the discussion around the importance of cancer and other noncommunicable diseases in the global health agenda.”

“To control the growth of non-communicable diseases including cancer in LMICs, an interdisciplinary approach for evidence generation and multi-sectoral collaboration and coordination for implementation are urgently needed.”

Data gaps hinder cancer fight

The new estimates and forecasts can help governments and the global health community develop data-driven policies to improve cancer control and outcomes worldwide while also tracking progress toward global and regional cancer targets.

“Our analysis also highlights the need for more data from sources such as cancer and vital registries, particularly in lower resource settings. Supporting cancer surveillance systems is crucial to informing both a local and global understanding of cancer burden,” said Force.

Better surveillance is not academic housekeeping. It determines how ministries budget, how hospitals plan, and how programs target risk in real time.

The authors note certain gaps. Current estimates do not fully capture some infection-related cancers common in lower-income countries, such as those linked to Helicobacter pylori or Schistosoma haematobium.

Nor do the models factor in the pandemic’s disruptions or recent conflicts. Forecasts also cannot anticipate future breakthroughs.

Urgent call for global action

Prevention works, and it starts with proven levers: tobacco control, HPV and hepatitis B vaccination, safer workplaces, cleaner air, healthier diets, and alcohol policies.

Diagnosis must occur earlier. Treatment must be timely, effective, and affordable. Palliative care must be universal. None of that is possible without stronger primary care, diagnostics, and trained workforces – and without funding.

Cancer’s raw numbers are climbing, driven by demographics. Nearly half of deaths, however, are linked to risks we can reduce. Survival improves when care is within reach. The world has time to bend the curve – if leaders match data with money, policy, and sustained attention where the need is greatest.

The study was published in the journal The Lancet.

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