Cutting methane emissions could quickly slow global warming

Methane is the planet’s second-largest human-influenced climate driver after carbon dioxide. Its levels are climbing faster than at any time in the observational record.

The latest update of the Global Methane Budget, covering 2000-2020, shows that atmospheric levels reached 1,931 parts per billion in January 2024. That’s more than two and a half times their pre-industrial value.

Despite this worrying trajectory, researchers argue that cutting methane could deliver big climate dividends at lower cost than equivalent CO₂ reductions.

Why methane matters

Methane’s potency stems from three key characteristics. It absorbs more infrared radiation than CO₂, stays in the air for about a decade, and is rising sharply in concentration. That combination means aggressive methane cuts can slow near-term warming more quickly than CO₂ mitigation alone.

“Methane itself has contributed about 0.5°C of warming during the 2010s, accounting for two-thirds of the warming linked to carbon dioxide,” said co-author Sergio Noce, a scientist at the CMCC Foundation.

With 2023 global temperatures already 1.45 °C above pre-industrial averages, rapid action on methane could help keep mid-century climate targets within reach.

Tracing methane’s origins

About two-thirds of annual global methane emissions come from human activities like fossil fuel use, livestock, rice farming, and waste management. The remaining one-third to nearly one-half comes from natural systems – wetlands, wildfires, thawing permafrost, and even insects.

“These natural methane emissions are particularly significant, accounting for around 35% to 45% of total annual emissions, according to various estimates that make up our updated budget,” Noce explained.

Together with Simona Castaldi, a professor of ecology at the Università degli Studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Noce accounted for biogenic sources not directly linked to human activities, with special attention to tiny but prolific contributors: termites.

“Within this broader context, our research focused specifically on termites, which represent a smaller but noteworthy portion of these natural emissions,” Noce said.

“Despite their small size, these tiny organisms produce a substantial amount of methane through their life processes, highlighting their role in the overall methane budget.”

The science behind the numbers

The Global Methane Budget is compiled by the Global Carbon Project. It now involves about 70 scientists who merge atmospheric measurements, ground inventories, process models, and satellite retrievals.

The current release is the third major update, ensuring policymakers and researchers are working with the freshest numbers.

“Keeping track of methane emissions and maintaining a vigilant watch over their trends is crucial for effective climate action,” Noce said.

“Understanding the sources and fluctuations of methane emissions allows us to implement targeted mitigation strategies and monitor their effectiveness.”

Watching methane from space

One leap forward comes from new orbital eyes. Noce noted the recent advancements in satellite technology, such as MethaneSAT and CarbonMapper, provide valuable tools for real-time monitoring of methane sources.

“This can help identify major emitters and enhance our ability to create effective policies.”

These instruments can spot plumes from individual pipelines, landfills, and well pads, enabling regulators or companies to plug leaks quickly.

Early trials suggest that a relatively small set of facilities accounts for a large slice of anthropogenic methane releases.

Climate fix that pays

Several analyses suggest that cutting methane offers equivalent warming benefits at a lower marginal cost than deep CO₂ reductions.

This is largely because many abatement options – such as capturing gas that would otherwise leak or vent – are cost-effective and often pay for themselves.

The International Energy Agency estimates that the oil and gas sector could reduce its global methane emissions by up to 70 percent with existing technologies, often turning the captured gas into profitable product.

Fast action, fast impact

Because methane reacts quickly in the atmosphere, any reductions translate into a noticeable temperature slowdown within a decade. That makes methane strategies an attractive complement to long-term CO₂ decarbonization.

Consistent monitoring enables swift action against warming, helping protect the environment and support long-term sustainability.

International agreements such as the Global Methane Pledge, launched at COP26, aim for a 30 percent cut in human-caused methane by 2030. Accurate budgets and real-time satellite surveillance will be essential for verifying progress.

The remaining uncertainties

Despite improved datasets on global methane emissions, gaps remain. Wetland responses to climate change, the exact scale of permafrost thaw emissions, and the resilience of natural sinks all introduce uncertainty.

The budget’s multi-method approach – combining bottom-up inventories with top-down atmospheric inversions – helps reduce uncertainties.

However, ongoing field campaigns and improved process models are still needed.

A unified front on a potent gas

The new Global Methane Budget highlights both urgency and opportunity: methane is rising fast, but affordable solutions are available. The findings highlight methane’s key role in climate change and the need for coordinated scientific action to address it.

With coordinated monitoring, swift leak repair, and targeted agricultural practices, the world could curb a significant slice of near-term warming – buying precious time for the deeper, more expensive task of driving CO₂ to net zero.

The study is published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

—–

Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates. 

Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.

—–