Ethiopia’s soil is running out of carbon and it's fueling climate change

Across Ethiopia’s farmland, soil is losing something crucial: organic carbon. This hidden ingredient helps crops grow, holds water in the ground, and keeps the land soft and fertile. When it’s gone, farmers face failed harvests, dry fields, and fewer ways to feed their families.

For rural households that grow crops and raise animals, this kind of loss hits hard. It means less food on the table and more stress during dry spells.

But it’s not just a local issue – soil organic carbon also helps keep carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. When soils lose carbon, it adds to global warming as well.

Soil sacrificed for survival

One of the biggest problems is that everything that could go back into the soil – straw, manure, and branches – is also needed elsewhere.

Families burn crop residues for cooking. They feed straw to livestock, and manure might be used to heat homes. Every handful of organic matter becomes a choice: warm the house, feed the animals, or protect the soil.

This isn’t just about farming. It’s about survival. And the pressure is getting worse. Scientists expect that by 2070, Ethiopia will be about 4°F (2.2°C) hotter and much drier. That kind of heat makes organic matter in the soil break down even faster. The land loses nutrients, and it happens faster than it can recover.

Time machine for soil carbon

Instead of measuring every field, which would take forever, scientists built a computer model of the soil. It’s called RothC, and it simulates how carbon levels in the soil change over time.

The experts ran this model using real data on local soils, weather patterns, and farming habits. Then they tested eight different scenarios.

Four farming methods – ranging from business-as-usual to using 50 percent more organic material in fields – and two climate conditions: one like today, and one reflecting the hotter, drier future.

This created a kind of time machine. It showed what could happen to soil carbon from now through 2070 depending on how people farm and how the climate shifts.

Tiny soil changes, lasting results

The computer model produced very tangible results: adding more manure to fields, leaving straw in place instead of burning it, planting legumes and cover crops, and growing hedges along the edges of fields to slow erosion. These are small steps – but they add up.

The tricky part is that someone has to do that extra work – and in many Ethiopian households, that someone is usually a woman.

Building manure sheds, hauling straw, and planting extra crops all take time and energy. They also require community decisions: Who gets to graze their animals where? Who buys the seeds? Who sets the rules?

Tailoring survival to the land

The study found that solutions must fit the land. In western Ethiopia, where rainfall is higher, soils can store significant amounts of carbon when farming practices improve.

But in the east, where it’s much drier, even big efforts don’t make as much of a difference.

That means there’s no single plan that works everywhere. Instead, the science gives a roadmap. It shows which areas have the most potential to store carbon and which areas need to focus on adapting to tough conditions instead.

Warming speeds the loss

In the best-case scenario – no additional warming and improved farming practices – some areas could gain up to 13 tons of carbon per hectare (about 5.2 tons per acre) over 50 years.

But with hotter, drier weather, those gains are cut in half. In some cases, the soil still loses carbon even with major efforts to restore it.

This also means inequality will grow. Some regions might earn income by storing carbon – through future carbon credit systems or climate funding. Others may just have to do what they can to hang on.

Choices that shape the land

The people most affected by these changes make hard choices every day. Do they burn wood to cook dinner or leave it on the land to protect the soil? Do they feed the cow now, or leave straw in the field to help next season’s crops grow?

These aren’t just technical questions – they’re political ones. Keeping carbon in the soil requires more than good advice – it requires investment.

Communities need access to cleaner energy so they don’t burn crop residues. They need shared manure storage and financial support to make these changes possible.

Grassroots action for the soil

The study suggests starting with what’s doable: keeping some crop residues in the field, storing manure more effectively, and setting clear rules about grazing. These are low-cost actions that communities can manage themselves.

From there, they can scale up – adding legumes and cover crops, planting trees, and building up organic matter. But none of this should fall entirely on women’s shoulders.

Making this transition fair means reducing their workload and giving them better access to tools, training, and inputs.

Local governments also play a crucial role. They must focus their efforts – investing where it matters most and offering tailored solutions where potential is lower. They also need to support regulations on how biomass is used and promote clean energy options that reduce pressure on natural resources.

Funding the fight for fertility

Then there’s the issue of funding. Without financial backing, these plans won’t move beyond paper. But if farmers are compensated for storing carbon – or if incentives can cover the extra labor – then carbon farming could become a genuine opportunity rather than just more work.

Even with the challenges of climate change, Ethiopian soils can grow strong again. But recovery isn’t just about the weather or the science – it’s about organizing communities, investing in smarter systems, and ensuring that the people who work the land have the resources they need.

Soil carbon isn’t just chemistry – it’s the foundation of future harvests, family meals, and national survival.

The full study was published in the journal Environmental and Sustainability Indicators.

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