Future hailstorms will be even more destructive

Hail is loud, sudden, and often destructive. A single storm can shred crops, crack glass, or leave dents across a town in minutes.

Europe knows this danger well, yet its future may look different. New research shows hailstorms could become less frequent as the climate warms, but the stones that do fall may grow bigger and more damaging.

Fewer hailstorms, bigger hail

Researchers from Newcastle University, the Met Office, and the University of Bristol used high-resolution climate simulations to explore the future of hailstorms.

The results show a decline in the number of severe hailstorms across most of Europe. But when hail does strike, the stones are likely to be larger.

Severe hail measures at least 2 cm across, while stones above 5 cm qualify as very large. Those larger stones fall faster, resist melting, and carry far greater destructive power.

Hail forms in strong updrafts high in a storm. Warmer air lifts the hail growth zone higher into the atmosphere, where weaker updrafts give stones less time to grow before falling.

By the time they descend, many stones begin to melt. Another shift comes from reduced wind shear. Organized hailstorms, which depend on strong differences in wind speed with height, become harder to form. The outcome will be fewer classic hailstorms in much of Europe.

Tropical hailstorms ahead

The picture isn’t only about decline. A new storm type may rise in the south: warm-type thunderstorms. These resemble tropical storms, where freezing levels sit higher but hailstones still survive the fall if they grow large enough.

The study points to Italy and the wider Mediterranean as hotspots for these future storms, especially in autumn. Here, giant hailstones could strike more often, even as overall storm counts fall.

Patterns differ across the continent. The British Isles and Northern Europe remain low-risk zones, with even fewer hail events expected.

Central Europe also shows a decline. Southern Europe tells another story. In autumn and winter, simulations reveal more conditions ripe for hail. Farmers in Italy or Spain, for example, could face giant hail at times of year when they rarely worry about it now.

Climate change and hailstorms

“Our findings indicate that the effects of climate change on severe thunderstorms are more complex than previously thought, and high-resolution models can produce results that differ significantly from earlier research,” said Dr. Abdullah Kahraman, from Newcastle University who led the study.

“Society may need to prepare for less frequent, yet more damaging hail events locally, in a 5-degree warmer future.”

The results highlight how storm risks may not simply fade in a warmer climate. Instead, the danger shifts toward larger hailstones that carry heavier consequences.

Preparing for the future of hailstorms

“These results are very concerning. They imply we need to be prepared for tropical-type hailstorms impacting Europe in the future, associated with very large hailstones that can cause severe impacts,” noted Professor Lizzie Kendon.

“This possibility also extends to the UK, although the risk of hail here remains low into the future.”

This draws attention to regions that rarely expect tropical-style storms today but may face them tomorrow. Even low-risk areas cannot fully ignore this possibility.

“As a society we need to be better prepared for unprecedented extreme events and this study shows that future storms in the Mediterranean could bring giant hail, with devastating impacts,” added Professor Hayley Fowler.

“Recent hailstorms have caused significant direct damage to properties and infrastructure, crops, and even aircraft!”

Shifts in hailstone size

The research points to a clear shift in hailstone sizes. Severe hail potential falls, yet the chance of very large hail rises. In Southern Europe, the ratio of very large hail to severe hail could even double.

That shift means fewer storms overall, but with much larger impacts when they do occur. Heatwaves may set the stage for these events, since extreme instability often follows long periods of hot weather.

No single cause explains the pattern. Weaker updrafts, higher freezing levels, and reduced wind shear all play a role. Rising instability from warmer air would normally boost storms, yet the other changes outweigh it.

The end result is fewer hail events but a higher risk of destructive giants. Researchers also note uncertainties. The models may underestimate how well the largest hailstones survive melting. If that’s true, the risks could be greater than expected.

Fewer storms – but more danger

Hail already costs Europe billions each year. Less frequent storms may sound like relief, but the growing size of hailstones changes the equation.

A single giant hailstorm can cause more damage than many smaller ones. Communities in Southern Europe, in particular, may need to prepare for a new reality: rarer storms, arriving in unusual seasons, and leaving behind more destruction.

Climate change reshapes risks in ways that defy simple logic. With hail, the message is clear – fewer storms will not always mean less danger.

The study is published in the journal Nature Communications.

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