Half of women who want children aren't sure they'll have them

As birth rates continue to decline across the United States, a new study reveals a key insight. About half of women who say they want children aren’t confident they’ll actually have them.

That uncertainty, researchers say, shows how complex and personal the decision to have kids has become.

The study was conducted by scientists at The Ohio State University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Wanting children vs. having them

The research team analyzed data from the National Survey of Family Growth, which surveyed 41,492 women aged 15 to 44 between 2002 and 2019.

The survey, managed by the National Center for Health Statistics, asked a wide range of questions about fertility intentions, plans, and attitudes. What stood out was the lack of certainty, even among those who expressed a desire to become parents.

“People’s feelings about having children are complicated, and we found there are a lot of nuances. It suggests that there is no simple answer to the declining birth rate in the United States,” noted study co-author Professor Sarah Hayford.

Over the years studied, the proportion of women saying they intended to have children remained fairly stable – about 62%. About 35% said they didn’t intend to, and only a small fraction were unsure.

But among the women who did intend to have children, nearly half said they were only “somewhat sure” or “not at all sure” they would actually follow through.

Confidence is falling

Income and education had some influence. Women with higher education and income were more likely to say they were “very sure” they’d have children. Still, even in that group, certainty dropped.

Among college-educated women who said they were “very sure” they would have children, the percentage fell from 65% in 2014 to 54% in 2018. And certainty wasn’t the only issue.

The intensity of the desire mattered too. Up to 25% of childless women who said they wanted kids also said they wouldn’t be particularly bothered if they didn’t have them.

“This not being bothered was especially high among younger women, and it increased over time among those who were younger,” Hayford said.

“They are open to different pathways and different kinds of lives. If they don’t become parents for whatever reason, it doesn’t seem that upsetting to many of them.”

The surprising cause of uncertainty

One common theory is that young people today are hesitant to have kids because they’re unsure about the future – climate change, political instability, the cost of living. But a related study suggests that might not be the main factor.

In collaboration with Karen Benjamin Guzzo of UNC Chapel Hill, Professor Hayford analyzed survey data from the American Trends Panel. That survey asked 3,696 people about their life satisfaction and concerns for the future.

Instead of being influenced by big-picture issues, people’s decisions about having children seemed to hinge more on their own personal happiness and stability.

“It was a bit of a surprise to us, but it was only their personal situation that mattered to whether they expected to have children,” Hayford said. “It wasn’t so much what was going on in society that predicted their fertility goals.”

Changing views about wanting children

The U.S. fertility rate peaked at 2.12 children per woman in 2007. Since then, it has steadily fallen, reaching 1.62 in 2023. That drop has sparked concern and debate about what’s behind it – and what it means for the country’s future.

But the findings from this research suggest there’s no simple fix. People still express a desire to have children, but uncertainty and ambivalence are more common than ever.

“On the one hand there is a lot of latent desire and intentions to have children. But people have a lot of uncertainty about whether they will meet those goals, and many don’t seem to worry that much if they do or don’t have children,” Hayford said.

“It is hard to predict what will happen next.”

The full study was published in the journal Genus.

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