Overconfidence makes conspiracy believers think they're right

Some people believe the moon landing was staged. Others say dinosaurs never existed. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, such conspiracy theories thrive. But what truly drives these beliefs? Is it loneliness, narcissism, or a need to feel special?

A new study from Cornell University takes a different angle. It shifts the focus from emotional needs to cognitive misjudgment. The research shows that overconfidence and misperception about social agreement fuel conspiracy thinking.

People who believe in conspiracy theories are often unaware of how isolated their views really are. They think they’re part of a larger consensus. But in reality, they stand nearly alone.

This mismatch between belief and reality is not only puzzling. It is also dangerous. With the rise of online misinformation, understanding this psychological pattern has never been more urgent.

Conspiracy believers are very confident

Overconfidence is a key trait of those who hold conspiracy beliefs. In the Cornell study, the researchers tested participants on numeracy and visual perception.

Despite performing poorly, conspiracy believers thought they had done well. This wasn’t a one-off event. It was consistent across different types of tasks. Participants routinely overestimated their own abilities.

But that wasn’t the most striking finding. These individuals also assumed that others agreed with them. According to the data, conspiracy believers thought they were in the majority 93 percent of the time. In most cases, they weren’t even close.

“This group of people are really miscalibrated from reality,” said Gordon Pennycook, associate professor of psychology. “In many cases, they believe something that very few people agree with.

“Not only is it something that doesn’t make a lot of sense, based on what we know about the world, but they also have no idea how far out in the fringe they are. They think they are in the majority in most cases, even if they’re in a tiny minority.”

Why people believe conspiracy theories

Past studies often blamed conspiracy thinking on narcissism or the need to appear unique. This new work paints a more cognitive picture.

Belief in false ideas doesn’t always arise from intentional bias. Sometimes, it’s just poor self-evaluation.

To reach these conclusions, researchers conducted eight separate studies involving 4,181 U.S. adults. Four of the studies focused on individual levels of overconfidence.

Participants were not just asked to take standard tests. Instead, they engaged in tasks where real performance couldn’t easily influence their perception.

In one case, they had to guess images that were heavily obscured, so difficult that they might as well have been guessing.

Measuring the unmeasurable

Overconfidence is tricky to measure. People who are least competent are often the least aware of it.

To bypass this issue, the team created tasks where the outcome was disconnected from actual ability. This allowed them to isolate confidence as a trait, rather than a result of success.

“Participants have little reason to believe that they did well – allowing higher estimated performance to more directly index higher levels of trait overconfidence without being confounded by actual performance,” noted the researchers.

With this method, the team could see a clear pattern. People who held strong conspiracy beliefs were more likely to inflate their test performance. They were also more likely to assume their beliefs were widely shared.

Conspiracy believers think most people agree

In the next phase of the study, participants were asked about well-known conspiracy theories.

The theories included claims like the Apollo moon landings being faked, Princess Diana’s death not being accidental, and the idea that dinosaurs never existed.

While these theories have been widely debunked, belief in them persists among some. The key insight was not just in who believed these claims – it was how they perceived the beliefs of others.

Even when only a small minority shared a belief, those participants thought the majority agreed with them. This gap between actual consensus and perceived consensus is central to the problem.

Overconfident individuals assume that what they believe must be common knowledge. That assumption makes them resistant to correction. If you think most people agree with you, why would you change your mind?

Internet spreads belief in conspiracies

The internet has expanded the reach of conspiracy theories. Social media allows fringe ideas to spread quickly and widely. Once isolated views now find instant communities of believers.

But the issue is deeper than just access to bad information. It’s about how people process that information and how confident they are in their own views.

Pennycook points to the changing information landscape. This “expanded marketplace for conspiracy theories” makes it easier than ever to find validation online, but the underlying overconfidence makes that validation feel unnecessary. People don’t seek opposing views because they don’t think they need to.

Real challenge in correcting beliefs

Efforts to counter misinformation often focus on facts. But facts alone may not be enough. If someone is unaware of their own errors, they won’t see the value in correction. This cognitive barrier makes misinformation harder to dislodge.

“The people who most need help distinguishing truth from falsity are the least likely to recognize that they need it,” noted the researchers.

This creates a cycle that feeds itself. The more confident someone is in their beliefs, the less they question them. The less they question, the more isolated they become from reality.

Rethinking the way we talk about truth

This research changes how we think about conspiracy theories. It suggests that tackling misinformation requires more than better education or clearer facts. We need to find ways to address overconfidence directly.

Helping people recognize the limits of their own knowledge could be the first step. Only then can they begin to question what they believe and understand how few others might actually agree with them.

The fight against conspiracy thinking might start not with facts, but with humility. And that may be the most difficult challenge of all.

The study is published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin.

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