Why reptiles may soon become top priority for conservation efforts

Every conservation story begins with loss. Species disappear, ecosystems shrink, and humans scramble to react. But what if we could see the next losses before they happen?

A new global study suggests we can – and it might completely change which species we fight to save.

Predicting future risks

Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira Caetano and his colleagues at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and Université Paris-Saclay built a new tool called the Proactive Conservation Index (PCI). It works like a forecast for biodiversity, not a scorecard of what’s already gone.

The PCI measures how future pressures such as climate change, land-use shifts, and invasive species could reshape ecosystems. It also looks at traits that decide survival odds – body size, reproduction rate, habitat range, and how much of that range falls inside protected areas.

Unlike the IUCN Red List, which ranks species by current or past declines, the PCI predicts which species will be impacted next.

Scientists tested the tool on 33,560 land vertebrates worldwide and found patterns that defy expectations.

Reptiles face conservation threats

Reptiles, not amphibians, top the PCI’s list for future conservation urgency. That’s a big shift from what most conservationists believed.

The IUCN Red List has long flagged amphibians as the most endangered group. But the PCI shows reptiles could soon face even greater threats as arid zones heat up and new species invade.

Many reptile families live underground or in deserts – places with little conservation focus. Fossorial lizards, blind snakes, and geckos may be more fragile than anyone realized.

Western India, the Caribbean, and Madagascar stand out as the next critical regions for reptile protection. These are also places where protected land remains scarce.

Limits of current methods

The IUCN Red List remains essential, but it looks backward. It tells us who is already in danger, not who will be.

The PCI adds that missing dimension. It shows that many animals listed as “Least Concern” could soon shift toward “Vulnerable” or “Endangered.” Near Threatened species may already need attention.

This approach also spotlights Data Deficient and Non-Evaluated species – animals so poorly studied that no one knows how close they are to collapse.

The PCI ranked many of them as severely at risk, similar to species already marked as Endangered. For conservation teams, this means these overlooked species can no longer be ignored.

Unseen reptiles’ conservation risks

The PCI didn’t just rank species; it mapped danger. It found unexpected hotspots – places that look fine today but could unravel tomorrow.

Arid ecoregions, tropical montane forests, and remote islands such as Socotra, Polynesia, and parts of the Caribbean will need serious protection. These regions house species that have tiny ranges and little tolerance for change.

Some of these areas don’t even match current conservation maps. The number of protected sites doesn’t always equal safety.

A large national park might exist, but if the animals inside can’t survive heat extremes, protection becomes symbolic. The PCI exposes this gap.

Climate choices matter

The researchers modeled two futures – one with moderate warming, another with extreme emissions. Under the harsher scenario, reptiles and amphibians suffer most.

Even tropical birds and mammals in so-called “safe” regions begin to lose ground. A milder future means less damage, proving that cutting greenhouse gas emissions still matters deeply.

The PCI can simulate either scenario. Conservationists can also adjust its weightings: give climate change more importance, or focus on land-use change and human population density. This flexibility makes it practical for planning in any region or ecosystem.

Acting before it’s too late

The study’s authors want conservationists to stop reacting and start anticipating.

“Our new future-focused method reveals many species and regions that will soon need more conservation attention than those currently suggested by methods that are focused on current and past threats,” wrote the researchers.

“Our method especially highlights reptile species, arid regions, tropical islands, and tropical montane forests as necessitating further focus. Acting before future threats are fully realized may give us the head start we need to protect this valuable biodiversity.”

From prediction to protection

The PCI’s greatest strength is accessibility. The team released a free online platform and an R software package, allowing anyone to calculate or visualize PCI scores. Researchers can update weightings, test future scenarios, or focus on a single region.

This adaptability could shift conservation priorities globally. It encourages planners to invest in prevention rather than emergency rescues.

Expanding protected areas in deserts and mountain forests now could spare dozens of species decades later.

Future of reptile conservation

Conservation has often meant racing against extinction. The PCI suggests a different race – the one to act first. By anticipating threats, the tool helps direct limited resources to where they’ll matter most.

If the world takes that approach, the next century’s conservation success won’t depend on luck or reaction. It will depend on readiness.

The study is published in the journal PLOS Biology.

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