Wildfire risk is rapidly rising across the southern U.S.

Wildfires have been a dominant ecological force in Southern forests for millennia, shaping longleaf pine ecosystems, wiregrass savannas, and oak-hickory uplands. Yet the way fire moves through the landscape is changing, and so are the lives and livelihoods that lie in its path.

A new assessment from the USDA Forest Service, produced with the Southern Group of State Foresters, takes a close look at how wildfire risk may evolve across the southeastern United States between now and the middle of the century. It also explores what land managers can do to stay ahead of the flames.

Today’s fire danger zones

Research ecologist Lars Pomara and his colleagues began by modeling current hazards in every county from Virginia to Texas.

The team considered two kinds of danger to people: direct exposure to flames and indirect exposure to smoke, which can travel far beyond a fire line.

The researchers also analyzed the likelihood that high-intensity burns could release vast stores of carbon from living trees and soil, as well as the risk that ash and erosion could impair watersheds supplying drinking water.

The resulting maps reveal a patchwork of vulnerabilities. Fast-growing coastal counties, for example, already face some of the highest combined threats because new subdivisions press up against fire-prone pine plantations.

Mountain valleys in the southern Appalachians and Ozarks look safer at first glance, but many of their steep slopes are covered in dense fuel thanks to decades of fire suppression.

Fire outlook to 2050

After capturing the baseline, the team explored several plausible futures. These included hotter or milder climates, changing rural populations, and forests either actively managed with fire or left to grow dense.

Even in mild scenarios, parts of the Southeastern Coastal Plain face greater wildfire risk by the 2050s. Under hotter, drier projections, patterns in parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama began to resemble the fire regimes of West Texas today.

Population trends amplify those ecological shifts. The South is the fastest-growing region of the United States, and many newcomers favor wooded lots on the urban fringe.

As houses spread into what scientists call the wildland-urban interface, straightforward brush fires can turn into multi-million-dollar emergencies almost overnight. The report warns that people are likely to become more exposed to dangerous fires and smoke as these interfaces expand.

Fire as friend and foe

At the center of the analysis lies an apparent contradiction: the best tool for preventing catastrophic wildfire is more fire.

Many southern ecosystems rely on regular, low-intensity burns to recycle nutrients and allow sunlight to reach the forest floor. These fires also prevent the buildup of leaves, twigs, and saplings that can turn a lightning strike into a destructive crown fire.

That is why prescribed burning – carefully planned and executed by trained crews – features prominently in every management strategy the authors tested.

When fire isn’t safe, mechanical thinning and fire-smart planning can help reduce wildfire risk. In densely populated counties, the researchers found that combining fuel treatments with defensible-space ordinances around homes could significantly reduce structure loss. This holds true even under hotter future climate scenarios.

Where to focus limited resources

Because budgets and personnel are limited, the report layers its risk maps with maps of potential payoffs from fuel reduction. The goal is to target efforts where they protect the most people, key watersheds, or carbon reserves per acre treated.

“Anyone who is working in the Southeast in conservation or forest management needs to be able to prioritize work and point their resources at the places where they see opportunities to get the most efficient and effective work done, including wildfire risk management,” Pomara said.

A triage mindset is essential, the authors note, as climate change may shrink the safe window for prescribed burns. Warmer springs and falls can extend the natural fire season; summer humidity, once a reliable brake on flames, may no longer suffice.

Forest conditions, too, are shifting. Blight-killed red bay stands along the coast and drought-stressed pines in the Piedmont both add to regional fuel loads.

Lessons from western neighbors

One eye-catching conclusion is that by mid-century, conditions in much of the Southeast could resemble those in Texas and parts of the Southwest. These regions are already hotter, windier, and more fire-adapted.

That realization invites cross-regional learning. Western crews have developed techniques for large-scale burns, smoke modeling, and community evacuation planning. These skills could be invaluable as the South enters its own era of increased wildfire activity.

Changing southern forests

The wildfire outlook is the third report in the Southern Forest Outlook series, following earlier studies on timber markets and water supply. Each chapter powers an interactive map where users can explore local wildfire projections and access risk-management resources.

“Forest management will be challenged in coming decades to confront the threats posed by wildfire while sustaining the positive roles of fire in southern forests,” Pomara said.

His team’s work implies that the challenge is daunting but not impossible. Where prescribed fire is used and mechanical thinning fills the gaps, forest health can be maintained. When communities also reduce ignition risks, the South can better protect both people and property.

By highlighting both hotspots of future danger and corridors of opportunity, the report offers a roadmap for action. The flames of tomorrow are not yet burning, and with strategic effort today, many of them never will.

The full Forest Service report can be found here.

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