Wildfire smoke is becoming America's deadliest climate threat

Wildfire smoke is no longer just a problem for people living near the flames. It spreads across countries, lingers in the air, and carries serious health risks. According to a new study, it is far more dangerous than we thought.

This isn’t about a few days of bad air quality. It’s about a rising, long-term threat to public health – one that could soon become the leading cause of climate-related deaths in the country.

Wildfires spread pollution nationwide

Wildfires have always occurred in the western United States. What used to be seasonal events have become a constant threat.

Hotter, drier weather – made worse by climate change – is fueling bigger, longer-burning fires. These fires send up massive clouds of smoke that travel hundreds, or even thousands, of miles.

A recent study shows that wildfire smoke is now a coast-to-coast issue. No community in the U.S. is safe from it. Researchers used death records, satellite data, and climate models to figure out how wildfire smoke is affecting health now – and how bad it could get in the future.

The future of wildfire smoke looks deadly

The study comes from a team led by Stanford University and includes researchers from Stony Brook University. They wanted to put real numbers to something people have felt getting worse: smoke exposure.

“There’s a broad understanding that wildfire activity and wildfire smoke exposure are changing quickly. This is a lived experience, unfortunately, for folks on the West Coast over the last decade and folks on the East Coast in the last few years,” said Marshall Burke, a senior author on the study.

Their findings are alarming. Under a “business-as-usual” path – where emissions keep rising and global temperatures increase by about 3.6°F – wildfire smoke could cause 30,000 more deaths per year in the U.S. by 2050.

The danger of tiny particles

One of the biggest concerns is a type of pollution called PM2.5 – tiny particles that are 30 times smaller than the width of a human hair.

These particles travel deep into the lungs and can even enter the bloodstream. They are linked to heart attacks, strokes, respiratory disease, and premature death.

While PM2.5 from car exhaust or power plants is harmful enough, PM2.5 from wildfire smoke may be even more dangerous. It is a complex mix of chemicals from burning trees, soil, and sometimes entire buildings. People can be exposed to it for days or even weeks, especially when fires burn longer and smoke lingers in the air.

Deaths do not always occur immediately. The study found that people can die up to three years after exposure to wildfire smoke.

Death toll could skyrocket

Between 2011 and 2020, smoke-related deaths in the U.S. averaged around 40,000 per year. If emissions keep rising, that number could jump to 70,000 per year by 2050 – a 75 percent increase.

Some of the hardest-hit states could be California, with an estimated 5,060 additional deaths; New York, with 1,810; Washington, with 1,730; Texas, with 1,700; and Pennsylvania, with 1,600.

The economic damage could be massive. By 2050, the researchers estimate that deaths caused by wildfire smoke could cost the U.S. economy $608 billion per year. That’s more than the projected cost of all other climate-related damages combined – like heat deaths, crop losses, and storm destruction.

“What we see, and this is consistent with what others find, is a nationwide increase in wildfire smoke,” said Minghao Qiu, the lead author.

“There are larger increases on the West Coast, but there’s also long-range transport of wildfire smoke across the country, including massive recent smoke events in the Eastern and Midwestern U.S. from Canadian fires.”

Climate models miss smoke

The study also points out that major climate models aren’t even counting wildfire smoke in their impact projections. That’s a big oversight.

“If you look at the leading climate impact assessment tools that are used to inform policy, none of them incorporate how changes in climate could influence wildfire smoke and related human mortality,” said Qiu.

“Our study shows climate models are missing a huge part of the climate impacts in the U.S. – it’s like leaving the main character out of a movie.”

Even if the world manages to keep global warming below 3.6°F, deaths from wildfire smoke are still projected to top 60,000 a year in the U.S. by mid-century.

All Americans breathe smoke

The smoke doesn’t care about your ZIP code. The risk doesn’t stop at the fireline. People far from wildfires are breathing in pollution from fires burning in other states or even other countries. And it’s not just people with pre-existing conditions who are vulnerable.

“Our understanding of who is vulnerable to this exposure is much broader than we thought,” said Burke. “It’s pregnant people, it’s kids in schools, it’s anyone with asthma, it’s people with cancer.”

“We look at one specific health outcome in this study – mortality – and unfortunately find a shared burden of exposure for individuals across the U.S.”

Fighting smoke’s deadly toll

This is a national problem, but there are steps communities and individuals can take. Public health officials can invest in cleaner indoor air, like better air filters in schools and homes.

Forest managers can use controlled burns and other techniques to reduce fuel buildup and lower the risk of massive fires.

We can’t stop every fire. But we can try to limit the damage – and the number of people who lose their lives just by breathing the air.

The full study was published in the journal Nature.

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