Climate change may devastate global food production

As climate change continues to reshape the environment, new research reveals that global food systems face serious long-term risks, with global crop yields likely to shrink even if farmers adapt.

The findings suggest that every additional degree of warming could significantly reduce how much food the world can produce.

A new study estimates that for every 1°C increase in global temperatures, the average person’s food supply could drop by 120 calories per day – roughly 4.4% of daily consumption.

“If the climate warms by three degrees, that’s basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast,” said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a professor of environmental social sciences at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

With more than 800 million people already suffering from food insecurity. The prospect of widespread food declines due to climate change is raising alarms among policymakers and humanitarian agencies.

The Corn Belt in jeopardy

The study points to the United States – particularly the Midwest – as one of the regions that could be hardest hit.

Andrew Hultgren is one of the lead authors of the study and an assistant professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

“Places in the Midwest that are really well-suited for present-day corn and soybean production just get hammered under a high warming future,” he said. “You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future.”

“This is basically like sending our agricultural profits overseas. We will be sending benefits to producers in Canada, Russia, China. Those are the winners, and we in the U.S. are the losers,” Hsiang added. “The longer we wait to reduce emissions, the more money we lose.”

Farming fixes only go so far

One of the study’s innovations is its realistic approach to adaptation. Rather than assuming farmers will either do nothing or respond perfectly to changes, the research team analyzed actual behavior in 12,000 regions across 55 countries.

They looked at yields and costs for six major staple crops: wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, barley, and cassava.

In many areas, farmers already adjust practices – like planting dates, crop varieties, or fertilizer use – to cope with climate change. These changes help, but only to a point. “Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture,” Hultgren said.

The impacts are likely to be most severe for the world’s agricultural powerhouses and its poorest communities. Yield losses from staple crops could average 41% in the wealthiest regions and 28% in the lowest-income areas by the end of the century.

Climate change picks food winners

One key finding is that climate change impacts crops differently. The study predicts a 50% chance that rice yields will rise, largely because rice benefits from warmer nights. However, the odds of decline by 2100 range from 70% to 90% for other major staples.

With the Earth already 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, the effects of climate change are no longer theoretical. Farmers are reporting erratic weather, longer droughts, and extreme heat, even in regions where modern inputs are readily available.

The models suggest that by 2100, global yields could fall 11% even if emissions drop to net zero, and by 24% if emissions continue to climb. The outlook for 2050 is not much better, with an estimated 8% reduction in yields regardless of emissions changes.

“If we ignore those long-run damages, we assign an economic value of zero to them, and that is clearly wrong,” Hultgren said.

Future farming needs support

Hsiang and Hultgren are now turning their focus to helping governments prepare. They’re working with the United Nations Development Program to share the findings and identify communities most at risk.

“We’re focusing on how to make it so that this is not actually what our future looks like, even if we can’t get our act together on the emissions side,” Hsiang said.

Helping farmers adapt won’t be easy. In many regions, they lack access to basics like quality fertilizer or accurate weather forecasts. The team is developing tools to prioritize funding and resources where they can make the biggest impact.

For Hsiang, the message is clear: climate change is eroding one of agriculture’s most essential assets – stability.

“Farmers know how to maintain the soil, invest in infrastructure, repair the barn. But if you’re letting the climate depreciate, the rest of it is a waste. The land you leave to your kids will be good for something, but not for farming,” he concluded.

The study is published in the journal Nature.

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