Farm animals may struggle to survive future heatwaves

By the end of this century, cows, chickens, goats, and other farm animals may face serious physical stress just trying to stay alive.

Scientists have developed a method to predict how different animals will respond to rising temperatures – and the outlook is grim, especially if the planet warms by 2°C (3.6°F) or more.

Using climate models and massive datasets from three countries, researchers developed a global method to forecast how heat will affect livestock between 2050 and 2100. Their goal is straightforward: prevent the food supply from collapsing as the climate continues to shift.

Farm animals near their heat limits

Not all animals suffer equally in hot weather. The study found that small ruminants – like sheep and goats – in the Northern Hemisphere will be hit harder than their Southern Hemisphere cousins.

By 2100, goats and sheep in the Northern Hemisphere could be breathing up to 68 percent faster just to cool off. That’s significant. It means more energy spent on survival and less on producing meat, milk, or wool.

Among animals raised in tropical areas, dairy cows in the Southern Hemisphere are especially vulnerable to heat stress. Goats and beef cattle do better in the heat thanks to something called phenotypic plasticity – a natural ability to adapt their body features to different environments without changing their DNA.

But birds don’t handle heat the same way. Laying hens and quail in the Southern Hemisphere rank among the most heat-sensitive animals. Projections show their breathing rates could rise by 40 percent per minute by 2100. That kind of stress affects egg production, growth, and survival.

Redefining future farm animals

The research team was led by Iran José Oliveira da Silva of the University of São Paulo. The study is part of a long-term project focused on building a new model of sustainable animal farming.

The lead author, Robson Mateus Freitas Silveira, conducted the study as part of his doctoral thesis. It’s the fifth article in a series.

“We began this series by defining, for the first time, what a sustainable animal would be. We understand it to be one with low net carbon emissions, efficient in feed conversion and adaptation regardless of climatic conditions, as well as clinically healthy and high-performing,” Silveira said.

Mapping climate threats to livestock

Silveira and his team used data from Brazil, Spain, and Italy. They tracked everything from respiration rates and body temperature to blood markers and hormone levels.

The researchers built intelligent models using machine learning and climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

They examined sheep, goats, dairy and beef cattle, pigs, poultry, and quail. After analyzing 12 large databases, they projected how animals in different regions would handle the heat – and which ones faced the greatest risk.

“Dairy cattle and poultry, whether for egg production or slaughter, will already suffer immediate effects on the production cycle,” Silva said. “This is a warning sign for future production.”

“That’s why it’s important to work together on genetics and the environment. We seek to analyze what will happen in the future to warn and alert producers, researchers, and public policymakers.”

Population growth fuels food strain

The human population is expected to grow to 10 billion by 2050. At the same time, weather patterns are becoming more extreme – hotter summers, longer droughts, and heavier storms. In 2024, 8.2 percent of the global population went hungry. That’s while a third of all food still goes to waste.

Animal agriculture already causes 31 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, mostly through deforestation and methane from livestock. As incomes rise and diets shift toward more meat and dairy, the pressure on the food system will only grow.

Brazil’s role in global meat supply

Brazil is one of the world’s largest meat producers, alongside the U.S. and China. In 2025, Brazil is expected to produce more than 31.5 million tons of beef, pork, and poultry – nearly the same as in 2024.

But even with record production, external pressures like U.S. tariffs and avian flu are shaking up exports.

“With global temperatures rising and weather events becoming more extreme, it’ll be necessary to develop resistant and adaptable breeds, as well as high-level production environments with temperature control,” Silva said.

“Our study provides crucial insights to guide animal production adaptation policies aimed at food security and environmental sustainability. We know that adaptations will need to be made, including management focused on the selection and conservation of genetic resources.”

Heat models lack global coverage

As thorough as the study is, the researchers encountered several problems. Data from different countries did not always align. Some relied on small samples, while others used different methods.

Researchers also face high lab costs, and only a few variables – such as rectal temperature and respiratory rate – were measured across all 12 databases.

Another issue is that many modern farms, especially in China and the U.S., confine animals indoors in fully closed systems. These setups were not fully represented in the study due to limited data.

“We’ve collected the initial data and now we need to add partner databases and expand the information to different regions of the world, allowing us to compare and study the effects in other scenarios,” Silva said.

Farms brace for climate stress

The team is now focusing on collecting more information about birds and pigs across Brazil to build a larger database that better predicts how different breeds will handle future climates.

Researchers believe that understanding how animals react to heat – from body temperature to blood chemistry – will be key to building farms that can withstand future climate conditions. They are not just studying farm animals – they are working to secure the future of food itself.

The full study was published in the journal Environmental Impact Assessment Review.

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