Some forests are now releasing more carbon than they store

Forests have long stood as symbols of hope in climate battles. Towering pines, lush rainforests, and dense boreal woodlands seemed to hold the answer to our rising emissions. Their leaves breathed in carbon dioxide. Their roots locked carbon in the soil. Their presence offered comfort in a warming world.

But this story is quickly unraveling. Climate change, once held at bay by nature’s resilience, is now overwhelming the very systems built to contain it. Fires rage through continents. Smoke blots out skies. And the forests we once trusted as guardians have begun releasing more carbon than they store.

A recent policy brief by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU‑INWEH) confronts this urgent shift.

The report delivers a stark warning. Forests, especially in fire-prone zones, are not guaranteed allies anymore.

Forests are releasing more carbon

The brief reveals how some forests are now “super‑emitters.” This term refers to landscapes that release massive amounts of carbon due to intense, frequent wildfires. These include boreal forests in the Arctic, stretches of the Amazon, and woodlands across Australia.

Despite this shift, many global carbon policies remain stuck in the past. Voluntary carbon markets still reward tree planting without considering how heat, drought, and pests are reshaping forest dynamics

“Planting trees is no longer enough – warming, drought‑stressed forests can flip into vast carbon sources when they burn. Forest policy must move from static protection to dynamic risk management,” noted Dr. Ju Hyoung Lee, lead author of the report.

Tree planting, once considered a reliable fix, can now backfire. In regions suffering from water stress, planting more trees might create dense fuel loads. These become dangerous when combined with dry soil, hot temperatures, and wind.

A spark in such an environment can undo years of carbon reduction in a matter of days.

Tree planting programs ignore wildfire risks

The scientists emphasized that carbon-offset programs need to evolve. It’s not enough to reward the act of planting. These programs must assess forest longevity and vulnerability. Drought, heatwaves, and pest infestations make it harder for forests to thrive, and easier for them to ignite.

Right now, many policies operate on fixed assumptions. They treat forests as stable, slow-changing entities. But reality no longer matches these models. A tree that grows in 2025 might burn before 2035. Without dynamic monitoring, carbon markets risk crediting projects that increase emissions.

According to the brief, more localized assessments are crucial. Hydrological factors like rainfall levels and soil conditions should guide decisions. So should projections of future droughts and temperature extremes.

Forest health isn’t just about what we plant, but where and how it’s maintained over time.

Satellites help detect at-risk forests

Technology offers a path forward. The authors call for better integration of satellite data in forest management. Earth observation tools can detect shifts in tree health, soil moisture, and canopy density. This data, collected in near real-time, provides an early warning system for fire risk.

“Forests are our powerful allies against climate change – but only if we manage them as living, dynamic systems. By coupling satellite data with proactive management, we can prevent fires from erasing decades of carbon‑reduction progress,” noted Professor Kaveh Madani, Director of UNU‑INWEH.

This isn’t just about prevention. It’s about transparency and smart policy design. If a forested area faces rising fire threats, it shouldn’t earn carbon credits the same way a more resilient area does.

Policies must reflect changing realities. With satellite monitoring, decisions can stay rooted in evidence, not assumptions.

Forest fire risks and carbon storage

The UNU-INWEH policy brief identifies a dangerous mismatch. On one side, global warming is accelerating wildfire risks. On the other, carbon markets act as if forests are immune to change.

This disconnect has serious consequences. Carbon pricing models and credit verification systems often fail to account for fire-related emissions.

Even the Paris Agreement and voluntary carbon initiatives continue to rely on static forest data. They rarely measure how likely a forest is to survive the next decade without burning.

Tree-planting campaigns in arid regions, especially those with degraded soil, often overlook this. In such environments, forestation might offer little carbon benefit and even invite disaster. When trees dry out, they become fuel.

Fires that sweep through them don’t just burn wood – they release all the carbon those trees once held.

Adaptive strategies for a warming climate

The policy brief recommends more than just updated monitoring. It suggests rethinking which actions count as carbon mitigation. In certain regions, the best approach may involve less planting and more managing.

Controlled harvesting can reduce tree density and remove dry biomass. In some cases, carefully managed grazing helps maintain soil moisture and stops flammable shrubs from spreading. These methods may seem counterintuitive, but under certain conditions, they prevent bigger losses.

This isn’t a call to abandon forests. It’s a call to respect their complexity. When managed well, they can still absorb carbon and support biodiversity. But when misunderstood or left vulnerable, they can undo climate progress in weeks.

Creating a global monitoring platform

To support better decision-making, UNU-INWEH urges the creation of a dedicated global platform. This system would channel near-real-time satellite data into both voluntary carbon markets and fire management programs.

Such a platform would allow stakeholders – governments, corporations, and NGOs – to adapt strategies as conditions change. It would also bring much-needed accountability. Projects could be evaluated not just at the start, but throughout their lifespan.

The report envisions a future where carbon finance aligns with ecosystem health. To reach that future, we need to move from static carbon accounting to dynamic, informed planning.

Forests need smarter carbon policies

The climate era has changed the rules. Forests cannot be treated as unshakable allies. They are living systems, shaped by drought, pests, and fire.

If we continue using outdated assumptions, we risk turning climate solutions into climate threats.

As the UNU-INWEH report makes clear, real progress depends on embracing complexity. With better data, smarter policies, and an adaptive mindset, forests can still help us fight climate change. But we must protect them as much from policy failures as from flames.

Read the entire study here.

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