States taking action on their own can cut half of U.S. emissions

States around the country are forging ahead on reducing carbon emissions, even when national policies seem stuck in a holding pattern.

Researchers have analyzed state-level actions and discovered that localized strategies can cut nearly half of the nation’s greenhouse gases by the middle of the century, with costs that differ from those of a unified approach by less than one percent.

Jeremiah Johnson is an associate professor of civil, construction and environmental engineering at North Carolina State University.

“We think there is significant value in assessing what kind of difference state-led efforts could make,” said Johnson. He sees this pattern as vital for regions eager to protect their economies and communities. 

Why some states lead on climate

Some places feel a direct impact from shifting weather, so local leaders seek methods that keep their energy grids flexible and their industries secure.

They often implement firm timelines to reach net-zero goals, which ensures each part of their economy invests in cleaner fuels and infrastructure.

Others try a mix of regulations and economic steps to spark homegrown innovation. That can mean new policies for industrial heating, more efficient transport, or robust local power systems that lean on wind, solar, and carbon capture rather than coal or oil.

States can cut emissions at low costs

The researchers found that states following their own climate plans could still reach emissions targets at a total cost only 0.7% higher than what a nationwide approach would require.

The study also showed that different policy paths lead to diverse technology solutions, including advanced manufacturing processes or cleaner power sources in certain corners of the country.

Modeling suggests that regional strategies might rely more on industry-specific changes. Meanwhile, a broad effort might tap wind and solar resources across all states, especially areas with steady breezes or plenty of sunshine.

Emissions across state lines

Varying approaches can affect surrounding areas. If some states slash emissions through electrification or direct air capture, others might shift their energy mix in unexpected ways that raise or lower their own pollution.

When a region invests in cleaner power, cheap electricity could flow across state lines. On the flip side, places without mandates might ramp up cheaper fossil options and export certain goods or services, which affects overall greenhouse gas levels nationwide.

When only some states commit to climate action, others may increase their own emissions to meet demand for power or fuel. This carbon leakage can cancel out progress made by cleaner regions.

Models show this happening when unconstrained areas export fossil-based electricity or biofuels to states with strict targets. Without safeguards, the emissions just shift around instead of decreasing.

State action brings jobs and growth

State-led decarbonization isn’t just about cutting pollution – it could unlock long-term economic growth. Regions that take early action might attract new jobs in clean energy, grid modernization, or next-gen manufacturing.

With rising public support for sustainable policies, states that build out local green infrastructure could become magnets for skilled workers and private investment.

Over time, these decisions could help reshape regional economies from the ground up.

Untapped clean energy in the Southeast

The Southeast stands out in models as the region with the most untapped potential. When included in a national climate strategy, it delivers the largest emissions drop of any region – more than California or the Northeast.

It also has ample biomass, solar capacity, and carbon storage options. Without policy nudges, though, these assets remain idle. That makes the Southeast a crucial player in hitting national targets, even if it’s slow to act on its own.

Delaying emissions cuts may raise costs

Even though the price gap between state and national action is small, the longer states wait to implement change, the more expensive it becomes to catch up. Delays can lock in high-emission infrastructure that’s harder and costlier to replace later.

Early movers avoid that trap. By upgrading systems now, they reduce long-term costs and position themselves for federal funding or private partnerships down the line.

States must work together

Some experts say that states with big ambitions should coordinate with neighbors to avoid leakage of emissions.

Joint investments in renewables, shared energy storage, or new grids could keep everyone moving in the same direction without undercutting progress.

Others highlight the power of well-designed incentives for regions that lack strict goals. If those communities harness options like direct air capture, or turn to large-scale bioenergy, the entire country benefits in ways that no single strategy can achieve on its own.

The study is published in the journal Nature Communications.

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