Tropical cyclones are preventing children from starting school

In the global climate crisis, some effects shout louder than others – rising sea levels, scorched forests, and lost biodiversity dominate headlines. Yet beneath these urgent visuals lies a quieter devastation: education disrupted by tropical cyclones.

For many children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the storm does not end when the winds die down.

A new Stanford-led study reveals that these climate events are quietly but deeply damaging schooling, especially for young girls.

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study investigates the connection between exposure to tropical cyclones and decreased likelihood of attending school.

The researchers examined over 5.4 million individual schooling records across 13 LMICs, covering five decades of data. The conclusions are alarming: children who face tropical cyclones at an early age are significantly less likely to start school at all.

Early cyclone exposure alters lifelong outcomes

Tropical cyclones – storms known for violent winds and torrential rain – bring more than temporary ruin. They destroy homes and schools, block roads, and force families into survival mode.

In this environment, schooling is often pushed aside, particularly for children at the most critical stages of education. The study found that exposure at preschool age – around 5 or 6 years old – leads to a 2.5% increased risk of never attending school. After strong storms, this risk rises to as much as 8.8 percent.

“There’s a sweet spot – or maybe I should say a sour spot – where cyclones are intense enough but also rare enough to wreak havoc that causes children to lose out on the opportunity to attend school,” said study senior author Eran Bendavid, a professor of medicine and health policy at Stanford.

While some communities have learned to prepare for such disasters, others remain vulnerable due to infrequent exposure. These communities often lack the resources or infrastructure to recover quickly.

Children, especially girls, are pulled from school to support household needs or because school buildings no longer exist.

Girls face greater educational losses

The impact of cyclones is not evenly distributed. Girls bear a disproportionate burden.

When disasters strike, cultural and economic norms often require girls to stay home, care for younger siblings, or help rebuild. The study reveals that girls experience a 0.6 percentage point increase in the likelihood of never attending school, compared to 0.3 for boys.

These findings reflect deeply embedded gender inequalities, especially in communities where education is already undervalued. In places with low baseline schooling rates, the losses are more severe. This creates a layered crisis: natural disasters compound existing disparities, making it even harder for girls to access education.

“Education is key to personal development, but tropical cyclones are depriving vulnerable populations of the opportunity to go to school,” said study lead author Renzhi Jing, a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford School of Medicine.

Which communities suffer most?

Interestingly, the research highlights that areas regularly hit by cyclones often experience fewer educational disruptions.

Communities exposed to frequent storms may have adapted through stronger infrastructure or improved social resilience. They may rebuild schools faster or have systems to support displaced students. In contrast, areas with little past exposure suffer more because they have no such defenses.

The study classified exposure by frequency using “return periods.” Communities with a return period greater than 20 years – meaning storms happen rarely – were the most affected.

In these regions, cyclones increased the likelihood of no schooling by 0.7 percentage points. Communities with frequent exposure showed little or no impact, suggesting adaptation helps reduce educational loss.

In practical terms, this means that storms hurt the most where people least expect or prepare for them. As climate change alters weather patterns, more regions may move into this dangerous “sour spot” of infrequent but severe cyclone exposure.

Cyclones and lost years of education

The setbacks are not limited to whether a child starts school. The study examined long-term educational outcomes and found cascading consequences.

Children exposed to tropical cyclones at preschool age were less likely to complete primary school or begin secondary education. Even among those who did enroll, storm exposure led to lower total years of schooling.

These trends show that even when families manage to get children back into school, the learning journey remains hindered. The effects do not fade with time.

This has lifelong implications, not just for individual development but also for economic and health outcomes. Communities where education falters tend to remain trapped in poverty, reinforcing a cycle that’s difficult to break.

From 2000 to 2020, the researchers estimated that in the 13 study countries, cyclones prevented 79,000 children from starting school. The total loss amounted to 1.1 million years of education. If expanded to all LMICs, that loss could exceed 1.5 million years.

Regions with the greatest losses

The greatest absolute losses occurred in countries with large populations and high cyclone exposure. India, Bangladesh, and Madagascar topped the list.

India alone accounted for about 22,000 children missing school, followed by 17,000 in Bangladesh and 14,000 in Madagascar. These countries also saw the highest total years of schooling lost.

Girls in these regions were particularly vulnerable. The researchers found that in most countries, more girls were affected than boys, by a factor of 0.9 to 6.2. These gendered outcomes suggest that any education-focused disaster response must address existing inequalities to be effective.

Interestingly, countries like the Philippines, despite frequent storms, showed smaller educational losses. High baseline enrollment and better adaptation may explain this resilience. Frequent exposure, when met with proper response strategies, may reduce long-term harm.

Why the start of school matters most

The preschool years, the researchers argue, are a pivotal window. Disruptions during this phase can set a child back permanently.

Once behind, children rarely catch up. Even if they later enroll, they face challenges in attendance, performance, and grade completion. The data show no clear evidence that children eventually recover the lost schooling, even in adulthood.

In addition to school buildings and materials, children’s emotional readiness and family stability are often impacted by storms. The study speculates that without long-term social and financial help, children never regain the momentum needed to succeed academically.

The authors also noted that tropical cyclones have both direct and indirect effects. Immediate physical destruction is only part of the story. Displacement, increased domestic work, and household financial stress all contribute to reduced schooling.

Preparing for future cyclones

This research signals a critical need for targeted interventions. Disaster preparedness should go beyond food and shelter. It must include plans to maintain or restore access to education quickly. Girls need special attention, with policies that protect their right to return to school and thrive there.

The researchers argue that schools must be built to withstand storms, and communities must be educated on the importance of keeping children – especially girls – in school after disasters.

Government and international agencies need to invest in early recovery programs that prioritize education alongside physical reconstruction.

As climate change continues to increase the strength of tropical cyclones, the problem will grow. Without a shift in priorities, we risk raising a generation denied the right to learn – not by choice, but by storm.

The study is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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