Vaping may be fueling a teen tobacco comeback

Teen smoking has plummeted over the past 50 years. What once was a common habit has become socially discouraged and heavily regulated. But a new trend is putting that progress at risk.

A recent study shows that teens who regularly use e-cigarettes are just as likely to pick up cigarette smoking as teens were in the 1970s – despite smoking rates among youth being at record lows overall.

The research was conducted by scientists from the University of Michigan, in collaboration with Penn State University and Purdue University.

Smoking risk rises with vaping

The data paints a sharp contrast between teens who’ve never vaped and those who have. Teenagers with no history of e-cigarette use have less than a 1 in 50 chance of smoking cigarettes weekly.

But that risk jumps dramatically for those who’ve used e-cigarettes – even once. If a teen has tried vaping, their chance of weekly cigarette use climbs to over 1 in 10. And for those who vape consistently, the odds approach 1 in 3.

“The use of e-cigarettes and the proliferation of e-cigarettes have really disrupted those awesome trends and improvements,” said Jessica Mongilio, a research fellow at the U-M School of Nursing. “For kids who have never used e-cigarettes, we do see those historic declines in risk.”

“But for kids who do use e-cigarettes, it’s almost as if all of those policies and all of those perceptions have done nothing, and they’ve got a really high risk of smoking cigarettes.”

Three generations, one troubling pattern

To understand how vaping is changing youth behavior, researchers analyzed data from three generations of British teens. The studies came from the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at University College London.

The Millennium Cohort Study followed kids born in 2000 and 2001 – many of whom grew up just as e-cigarettes were hitting the market.

The British Cohort Study tracked people born in 1970, who were teenagers in the 1980s when smoking was still widespread. And the National Child Development Study looked at those born in 1958, who were children when cigarette use was still largely unchallenged.

“We took data from different generations of people who live in the U.K., and looked at their probability of smoking cigarettes at least once a week, based on some well-known risk factors,” Mongilio said.

Teen vaping reverses trends

Smoking was once seen as glamorous. Over time, that perception was dismantled through decades of public health campaigns, legislation, and shifting cultural attitudes.

By the late 1990s, smoking had become a behavior that was not just discouraged but actively regulated. Youth smoking hit all-time lows in the 2010s.

But now, vapes – especially those marketed with bright packaging and fruity flavors – are being seen as a less harmful alternative to cigarettes. That perception is drawing teens back to nicotine.

According to the researchers, vaping could erase decades of progress by drawing a new generation into nicotine use.

Tracking teens into adulthood

One important note: the study does not claim that vaping causes cigarette use directly. But the connection is strong.

Mongilio and her colleagues are continuing to monitor the Millennium Cohort to see how vaping in the teen years plays out over time. This group may reveal more about the long-term effects of early e-cigarette use on health and behavior.

The team is using their findings to advocate for tougher e-cigarette rules on marketing and sales.

“The more you can build evidence – the bigger the pile of support – the harder you can make it to ignore,” Mongilio said. “This will lead toward policy changes and toward increased regulations for e-cigarettes and for producers of e-cigarettes.”

“I think we’re in a place where change is possible and to have increased regulations and enforcement of those regulations for companies that are producing e-cigarettes.”

The full study was published in the journal Tobacco Control.

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