Why some lakes may disappear faster than others

Lakes are lifelines across the world – storing water, sheltering diverse wildlife, and supporting millions of people. But today, these vital ecosystems are facing a growing threat that could upend the balance they have long sustained.

Climate change is putting pressure on these water bodies. Scientists want to know whether lakes rely more on rain or groundwater. This information can help protect lakes from water stress during droughts.

In a new study, researchers collected data from 350 lakes in 18 European countries. They studied how these lakes react to climate shifts.

The team presented their findings at the Goldschmidt Conference in Prague. Their results show why every drop of water counts.

Sources of lake water

Researchers at the Czech Academy of Sciences used hydrogen and oxygen isotopes, called 18O and 2H, to study the lakes.

The isotopes reveal how much water comes from rain and how much from underground sources. They also show how much water is lost through evaporation.

The researchers gathered data on weather, land use, and lake characteristics. They looked at temperature, rainfall, humidity, forests, farms, and even city areas near lakes.

The data was combined using machine learning, which allowed the experts to identify patterns and predict future risks for the lakes.

Groundwater provides more stability

Lakes fed by groundwater proved to be more resilient, maintaining steady water levels even during dry spells.

In contrast, shallow lakes were far more vulnerable. With their broad surfaces, they lose water rapidly through evaporation and have little ability to replenish it.

The study warns that as temperatures continue to rise, these shallow lakes could face increasingly severe challenges.

Lowland lakes face high risks

Lakes in lowland areas face greater danger. The study predicts that many of these lakes will face critical water loss by 2050.

Artificial lakes, like reservoirs, face the biggest risks. They are often shallow and lack strong groundwater connections.

Many of these lakes also sit in farming regions. Fertilizers and other chemicals from farms often wash into them, harming water quality. This creates both pollution and water shortage risks.

Mountain lakes are more stable

Lakes at high altitudes are currently more resilient. Cooler temperatures help lower evaporation rates. Groundwater connections in these lakes are often stronger.

High-altitude lakes also largely avoid pollution, at least for now. Most are far from intensive farming areas. However, that could change soon.

Farming is slowly expanding into higher areas. This could bring new pollution risks to mountain lakes in the future.

Different strategies are needed

At the conference, Dr. Cristina Paule-Mercado from the Czech Academy of Sciences explained the study results. She noted that her team initially expected the same controlling factors to apply across all lakes, but that wasn’t the case.

“While we can draw some general insights from the analysis, we also observed how each region has different dynamics driven by the interaction of multiple variables,” said Dr. Paule-Mercado.

“This highlights the importance of considering all these factors – and particularly groundwater-lake connectivity – when designing sustainable management strategies to address climate change and water scarcity.”

Protecting lakes from water stress

The study has not ended here. In fact, it has just started growing. The research team is expanding their work to include over 400 lakes across different regions.

The main goal is to build a global database of lakes and water systems. This database will help track changes and guide future water protection efforts.

The researchers draw on a wide range of data sources, including open-access databases that provide freely available information. They also conduct fieldwork, visiting lakes in person to collect fresh water samples for detailed analysis.

The project has grown into a truly collaborative effort. Scientists from around the world are now contributing, and local communities are playing an active role.

Citizen science has also become a big part of the research, with residents living near the lakes helping to collect data and monitor water conditions firsthand.

By combining all these efforts, the team hopes to protect lakes from water stress and improve management for communities worldwide.

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