Wines may develop new tastes as climate patterns change

Wine has long been regarded as a mirror of its environment. From the high slopes of Mendoza to the gentle hills of Tuscany, each bottle reflects not just grape variety and tradition, but also the subtle influence of climate, soil, and season.

For centuries, these factors combined to shape what is known as terroir – the distinctive character of a wine shaped by its natural surroundings.

But today, the climate that supports winegrowing is no longer stable. Global warming is not just nudging temperatures upward – it is altering the rhythm of growth, the timing of harvest, and even the places where wine can be grown.

A sweeping new study led by E.M. Wolkovich at the University of British Columbia provides a much-needed global lens into these transformations. The research reveals a world where climate change has reached into every winegrowing region – but in dramatically different ways.

Wine industry faces climate extremes

Winegrapes are one of the world’s most sensitive perennial crops. They grow year after year, rooted in specific microclimates.

Unlike annual crops that can be replanted in new locations, vineyards represent long-term investments that depend on stable conditions. As a result, winegrapes are especially sensitive to climate extremes.

Warmer temperatures push the limits of ripening. Grapes mature faster, resulting in more sugar and alcohol, but often less acidity and complexity. This alters not only taste but also market value.

Meanwhile, regions that once hovered at the cooler edges of climate suitability are becoming new centers of production, with parts of the UK and Tasmania emerging as rising players in the global wine scene.

Despite a growing body of regional studies, no prior research had taken a comprehensive view. Wolkovich’s team aimed to understand how climate change has affected winegrowing across continents, across seasons, and across grape varieties.

Wine and climate trends across regions

The researchers analyzed more than 500 winegrape varieties grown across 620 regions worldwide.

They looked at ten critical climate metrics that influence grape development, from temperatures during winter dormancy and budburst, to extreme heat during the growing season, and rainfall just before harvest.

Rather than rely on a single dataset, the experts drew from multiple sources, including the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset and the INRAE Domaine de Vassal collection, which has maintained decades of records on grape phenology.

The team created detailed models that could estimate changes both with and without considering the diversity of grape varieties planted in each region.

The research spans every stage of the grape’s annual cycle and covers a global map of winegrowing zones. The study paints a complex picture. Climate change is not a uniform force – it is reshaping winegrowing differently in Europe, North America, Asia, Africa, and beyond.

Europe faces the most intense heat

The most dramatic changes were observed in Europe. Here, temperatures during the growing season have soared.

The researchers found increases of over 2°C (3.6°F) in maximum temperatures, and a surge in the number of days exceeding 35°C (95°F). These shifts represent standard deviation jumps of 4 to 6 in Eastern and Western Europe – a statistical signal of extreme change.

Such conditions challenge the very definition of classic European terroirs. Wines from Bordeaux, Burgundy, and the Rhône Valley may now ripen too quickly. Sugar levels spike while acidity drops, altering the flavor balance.

“I was very surprised by the level of warming across the globe, but especially in Europe, where our results show clearly just how much the growing season has warmed with human-caused climate change,” said Dr. Wolkovich.

“As someone who has visited Europe for over 15 years, I have witnessed the increasing heat waves, but seeing the data – and how much change growers are facing – was sobering and even higher than I expected.”

Other regions face different realities

In contrast to Europe, North America and South America showed smaller average shifts, though still notable.

For example, mean growing season temperatures increased by 1.3 standard deviations globally. Yet the types of stress varied. While Europe faced surging heat extremes, North American vineyards experienced more modest rises in both minimum and maximum temperatures.

Regions like Northern Africa and Western Asia, already at the warm end of the spectrum, saw smaller relative increases in high temperatures. But even small gains in such climates could have severe effects. These include greater wildfire risk, vine stress, and potential reductions in yield or quality.

The experts found that precipitation changes were minor on average. However, even slight reductions during harvest in places like Eastern/Southern Africa could impact grape development and disease pressure. The effects of these changes, though subtle, may accumulate over time.

Heat affects wine more than cold

One of the most striking findings in the study was that extreme heat – not minimum cold temperatures – has changed the most. This runs counter to many expectations.

“The fact that the biggest shifts were in heat extremes and metrics related to total heat was also surprising as we tend to expect climate change to warm minimum temperatures more – so I expected metrics like cold temperatures around the time of budburst and harvest to change the most – but it was often the metrics related to higher temperatures,” said Dr. Wolkovich.

This has major implications. Growers often prepare for spring frosts or winter chills, but now they must deal with searing summer heat and accelerated grape maturation. Such conditions could lead to berry shriveling, changes in tannin structure, or even crop loss.

The influence of grape variety

To test whether the mix of grape varieties in each region influenced climate metrics, the team modeled two scenarios. One assumed every region grew only Pinot noir, an early-ripening red grape. The other used detailed data on which varieties are actually planted in each area.

Surprisingly, the results showed only minor differences in most climate metrics between the two approaches. That’s because most regions plant a small set of popular varieties. Only Europe, with its rich mix of late-ripening cultivars, showed measurable shifts based on variety.

Still, the researchers note that this could change. As warming intensifies, regions may be forced to switch to more resilient, late-maturing varieties.

Dr. Wolkovich’s team modeled over 500 cultivars, but even this impressive effort covers less than half of all varieties grown globally. The data gap reflects how much more needs to be done.

Stages in wine and climate cycles

Most climate models focus on the start (budburst) and end (harvest) of the growing season. But this overlooks critical mid-season events like flowering and veraison – the moment when grapes begin to change color and soften.

These stages are especially sensitive to temperature and water stress. Yet they are often excluded from global models because of a lack of data.

The study calls for more research into how these mid-season processes are shifting, and how different grape types respond under stress.

Understanding these details could guide smarter planting decisions and improve predictions about wine quality under future climates.

Local solutions need global awareness

One of the core messages of the study is that winegrowers cannot think in isolation. The effects of climate change are deeply local, but learning from other regions can provide key insights.

Dr. Wolkovich noted that the study was a major interdisciplinary and international undertaking, requiring expertise from climatologists, crop modelers, macroecologists, and winegrape genetics experts from France, Spain, the US and Canada.

“It also relied on extensive data resources, and would not have been possible without the records of the INRAE experimental unit Domaine de Vassal, which has collected data on winegrapes for decades.”

Europe’s experience with heat waves may inform future strategies in cooler regions. Australia’s innovations to handle wildfire smoke have already been adopted in parts of California.

As the research notes, global comparisons can reveal both absolute extremes and relative rates of change – each of which matters for long-term adaptation.

Wine’s future in a changing climate

Climate change is not only about average temperatures. It is about the shifting tempo of seasons, the rise of extreme events, and the fragility of systems once thought stable. Winegrowing, with its deep ties to place and tradition, now faces a reckoning.

This global study does more than document change – it invites a broader rethinking of how we grow, manage, and protect one of the world’s most culturally and economically significant crops.

By blending regional expertise with a planetary perspective, it offers a path forward: one that honors tradition while preparing for transformation.

The study is published in the journal PLOS Climate.

—–

Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates. 

Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.

—–