Scientists may have figured out how to predict auroras on Mars

For the first time, we can predict when green auroras will light up the night sky on Mars. And we’ve got the photos to back it up.

NASA’s Perseverance rover recently captured visible-light images of a Martian aurora from the surface of the Red Planet. That alone is exciting.

But the real breakthrough is this: scientists now have a working method to forecast when those ghostly green lights will show up.

These predictions are more than just a cool science trick. They could one day help astronauts survive on Mars.

How auroras happen on Earth and Mars

On Earth, auroras (like the Northern Lights) are caused by solar particles slamming into our atmosphere, guided by the planet’s magnetic field.

The particles crash into oxygen and nitrogen high above the ground, causing them to glow. It’s the solar wind meeting Earth’s natural defenses – and putting on a show.

Mars has a much thinner atmosphere and no global magnetic field. So when the solar wind hits, it spreads across the entire night-side of the planet instead of gathering only at the poles, like it does on Earth.

That means the auroras on Mars, called “diffuse” auroras, don’t follow neat patterns. They can show up anywhere that the sun-facing radiation reaches the night sky.

The result? A soft, green glow across large parts of the Martian sky.

And yes, it’s visible to the naked eye – meaning future Mars crews could just look up and see it.

Science behind the aurora glow on Mars

The green color comes from oxygen atoms high in Mars’ atmosphere. When they get hit by high-energy particles from the sun, they emit that eerie green light.

The high-energy particles are usually launched by a powerful solar event called a coronal mass ejection (CME). Think of it as a solar storm – a blast of charged particles shooting through space.

If that storm is aimed at Mars, and it hits hard enough, the impact can set off an aurora.

But there’s a catch: predicting when that will happen isn’t easy.

A high-stakes guessing game

To see auroras on Mars from the Earth, scientists have to line everything up perfectly: they need a strong CME heading for Mars, and they need to tell the rover where to look three days ahead of time. That’s a tough call.

Between 2023 and 2024, scientists made eight separate attempts using Perseverance’s SuperCam and MastCam cameras. At first, they struck out.

After a few failures, they analyzed past conditions using data from NASA’s MAVEN and Europe’s Mars Express spacecraft.

That’s when they figured out something key: the earlier CMEs hadn’t been fast enough to stir up the kind of solar wind needed for auroras.

“The faster the CME, the more likely it is to accelerate particles towards Mars that create aurorae, and the stronger the solar wind disturbance around Mars, the more likely it is that those particles make it into Mars’ nightside atmosphere,” explained Dr. Elise Wright Knutsen of the University of Oslo.

So they adjusted their strategy. They focused on faster, more intense CMEs – and it worked.

They nailed down two successful detections of Mars auroras. But then, oddly, the last three attempts also failed, even though the storms looked promising.

“The last three non-detections are more curious,” Knutsen said. “Statistically, there is also a degree of randomness to these things, so sometimes we’re just unlucky. This perhaps isn’t that surprising, since predicting the aurora on Earth down to minute precision isn’t an exact science either.”

Why auroras on Mars matter

These auroras aren’t just visually pretty. They’re a warning sign. The same solar particles that cause the glow can be dangerous for astronauts.

On Earth, our magnetic field and atmosphere protect us. Mars doesn’t have that kind of shield.

If astronauts are out in the open during a solar storm, they could get hit with radiation. That’s why the ability to predict auroras – and the solar storms that cause them – is more than a scientific curiosity. It could save lives.

The ability to predict these events gives future crews a heads-up to take shelter before radiation levels get dangerous.

What’s next in the Martian skies

The scientists are now comparing timing and intensity data from different spacecraft to figure out what sparks the auroras on Mars, and how long after a CME they begin.

With more visible-light data being collected from the Martian surface and more solar activity expected in the years ahead, there’s hope that aurora predictions will keep getting better.

For now, we know this: the night sky on Mars isn’t as quiet as we thought. And thanks to a few lucky shots from a rover and a lot of patient science, we’re learning how to read its signals.

Information from a Europlanet online press release. The information was presented at the Europlanet Science Congress–Division of Planetary Science (EPSC–DPS) joint meeting in Helsinki on September 10, 2025.

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