Arctic winters are no longer frozen - and that’s a problem

The Arctic has always been a place where nature sets its own rules – harsh, quiet, and brutally cold. Winter there used to mean months of uninterrupted snow, frozen soil, and solid ice. But that baseline is now crumbling. 

In February 2025, researchers working in Svalbard – an archipelago in the high Arctic – found themselves surrounded not by snowdrifts and biting winds, but by rain, meltwater, and patches of green.

This was supposed to be the season of ice. Instead, they witnessed a spring-like thaw in what should have been the dead of winter. The snowpack vanished in days as rain fell instead of snow. 

A new Arctic, faster than expected

Svalbard is warming six to seven times faster than the global average. But even against that backdrop, this winter stood out. 

Temperatures climbed above freezing in the middle of February. Instead of navigating frozen terrain, researchers were standing ankle-deep in meltwater at the foot of a glacier, or walking on exposed tundra that was dotted with signs of life.

The scene wasn’t just a fluke. It marked a shift. Arctic winters – once considered the most stable and predictable part of the region’s climate – are becoming warm, wet, and unstable. 

It’s a change that’s been warned about for years. But now, the pace and intensity of that change are catching even seasoned scientists off guard.

The fieldwork was led by Dr. James Bradley, a scientist at Queen Mary University of London.

“Standing in pools of water at the snout of the glacier, or on bare, green tundra, was shocking and surreal,” said Dr. Bradley. “The thick snowpack covering the landscape vanished within days. The gear I packed felt like a relic from another climate.”

Arctic winter with no snow

This wasn’t just a strange experience – it disrupted the fieldwork itself. The team had traveled to Svalbard with a simple mission to study snow. But over two weeks, snow fell only once, while everything else came down as rain. 

“The goal of our fieldwork campaign was to study freshly fallen snow,” said Laura Molares Moncayo, a PhD student and co-author of the study. 

Moncayo noted that the lack of snowfall in the middle of winter undermined the team’s ability to establish a representative baseline for frozen-season processes. 

“The unexpected melt not only disrupted our sampling plan, but also made us question how safe or feasible winter fieldwork really is under such rapidly changing conditions.”

The researchers had to rethink how they access remote sites. Slushy snow made it hard to use snowmobiles, and the unpredictability raised safety concerns – including what to do if a polar bear showed up. 

With the landscape melting and refreezing without warning, even basic rescue plans become complicated.

Climate shifts with consequences

The melting Arctic isn’t just a problem for scientists. It sends ripple effects across ecosystems and even global climate systems. 

During warm spells, temporary lakes form on top of frozen ground. Snow cover vanishes in huge patches, exposing the bare earth to sunlight. 

This exposure speeds up biological activity and triggers a dangerous climate feedback loop – warming leads to thawing, which leads to more greenhouse gas emissions, which leads to more warming.

Impacts of Arctic winter warming

The winter warming events can also affect carbon cycling, freeze-thaw patterns, and the survival of wildlife. 

Many animals and microbes have adapted to long, stable winters. But now that winters can flip above freezing even in February, those adaptations may no longer help them.

Permafrost, the frozen ground that holds vast stores of carbon, is also at risk. When temperatures creep above freezing more often in winter, the upper layers of permafrost can thaw.

Thawing permafrost releases carbon dioxide and methane – two powerful greenhouse gases – into the atmosphere, adding fuel to the climate fire.

Policy needs to catch up

In a commentary published in the journal Nature Communications, the researchers say it’s time for climate policy to adjust. 

“Climate policy must catch up to the reality that the Arctic is changing much faster than expected, and winter is at the heart of that shift,” said Dr. Bradley.

He and his colleagues are calling for major investment in winter monitoring systems across the Arctic. 

Without better data and year-round observations, it’s impossible to build accurate models or develop strategies that help vulnerable communities – including Indigenous Arctic populations – prepare for what’s ahead.

Arctic winters are difficult to study

Despite the urgency, scientists say we still lack the data to fully understand what’s happening. 

Winter has always been the hardest season to study in the Arctic. It’s dark, cold, and logistically challenging. But that’s exactly why more attention is needed now.

“We are still unaware of the consequences that these recurring events are bringing to Arctic ecosystems, especially during the winter period, where conditions are more complex and data is scarce,” said Donato Giovannelli, a geomicrobiologist and senior author on the commentary. 

“We might have been too cautious with our messages. Irreversible changes to the Arctic climate are happening in front of our own eyes.”

—–

Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates.

Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.

—–