Cutting emissions could save 250,000 lives a year in Europe

Emissions don’t just warm the planet – they’re also costing lives. By 2050, up to 250,000 deaths linked to air pollution could be prevented every year in central and western Europe. But this outcome hinges on one thing: strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

That’s the key takeaway from a new study by atmospheric scientists at the University of Leeds.

The research shows that the health benefits of climate action stretch well beyond lowering carbon footprints. They include better air quality and fewer pollution-related deaths, especially in poorer communities across Europe.

Hidden dangers of air pollution

Air pollution is a major health threat. It’s the biggest environmental risk factor for early death, contributing to around 8 million fatalities worldwide each year, according to the World Bank and the World Economic Forum.

The World Health Organization has warned that nearly every organ in the body can be affected by air pollution. Tiny particles can pass through the lungs and enter the bloodstream, causing widespread inflammation and increasing the risk of cancer.

The list of health problems linked to dirty air is long. It includes strokes, heart disease, chronic lung diseases, cancer, pneumonia, diabetes, dementia, and even poor pregnancy outcomes such as low birth weight.

Cutting emissions to save lives

The research team examined Europe’s exposure to two key pollutants: fine particulate matter (which can deeply enter the lungs) and surface-level ozone (which forms when sunlight reacts with gases like nitrogen oxides).

They used a detailed atmospheric model to simulate air quality in 2050 under three scenarios: low, medium, and high climate action.

The findings were clear. The more we reduce emissions, the more lives we save. But there’s another layer to the story. Poorer regions currently bear the brunt of air pollution. Stronger climate action can not only reduce overall deaths but also level the playing field.

A high level of action, which also included reductions in agricultural emissions, would lead to improvements in air quality across the continent as well as an improvement in equity and far larger reductions in mortality overall.

Mapping the gains from emissions cuts

In 2014, air pollution levels were highest in central and eastern Europe – places like southern Poland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Italy’s Po Valley.

Fast-forward to 2050 under a high-emissions-cutting scenario, and fine particulate matter falls sharply. Areas like southwest Germany and Paris could see up to a 90 percent drop.

Interestingly, a medium level of action – focusing more on housing, industry, and transport – provided the greatest benefits to low-income areas. That’s because these sectors heavily impact urban and working-class communities.

“The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, not least of which are the number of deaths,” said Connor Clayton, a PhD student in the School of Earth and Environment and the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures.

“But they also urgently need to consider the persistent inequity of exposure between wealthier and more deprived populations which continues to be an issue even though air pollution has reduced across Europe.”

A win for the planet and public health

The message is simple. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is not just about the climate. It is about health, fairness, and saving lives – especially in places that need help the most.

“This work provides evidence that there are direct health benefits from moving towards a low carbon economy,” noted Dr Jim McQuaid, who led the research.

“Air pollutants and the climate warming gases and aerosols are one and the same, it is very much two sides of the same coin. It was particularly good to see that those who suffer most from air pollution currently benefit most from the benefits of the drive to a net zero world.”

As Europe plans its climate strategy, the study highlights a powerful opportunity. If policymakers take bold steps toward cutting emissions, they could protect public health and reduce long-standing social inequalities at the same time.

The full study was published in the journal Earth’s Future.

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