Global emissions are expected to decline - but not fast enough

For the first time, a major global climate report has shown that greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decline. That’s new, and it’s big – but it’s also not nearly enough.

According to a report from the United Nations, emissions will drop about 10% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. That would mark the first official drop ever projected by the U.N.

No cause for celebration

Before anyone celebrates, there’s a catch – this isn’t close to the 60% cut scientists say is needed by 2035 to keep the planet from heating up more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The 1.5°C threshold isn’t just a random number. It’s the limit that global leaders agreed to stay below when they signed the Paris Agreement back in 2015.

Just beyond this threshold, things start to unravel in the form of floods, fires, heat waves, food shortages, and major damage to ecosystems and economies.

“Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” said Simon Stiell, who leads the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. “We have a serious need for more speed.”

The climate is already hitting hard

We don’t need to wait for future disasters to see what climate change looks like. It’s already costing lives and money.

Droughts, mega-storms, and long heat waves are more frequent, more intense, and more destructive. Thousands of people are dying each year, and economies are losing billions.

All of this is fueling urgency around the upcoming COP30 summit in Brazil. There, world leaders will face the hard truth: current pledges fall way short of what’s needed. Closing the gap between where emissions are and where they should be is a steep uphill climb.

Gaps in global emissions reporting

The U.N.’s latest estimate is based on pledges from countries that produce about 80% of global emissions. These promises are laid out in something called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. Every five years, countries are supposed to update and submit their NDCs.

So far, only 64 countries turned theirs in on time. That’s just one-third of the world’s emissions being fully accounted for in the report.

The U.S., Brazil, the U.K., and Norway are in. But several major players are missing. China has set internal targets but hasn’t formally submitted anything. India hasn’t said when it will submit. The European Union is still trying to get all 27 member nations to agree on one plan.

And while the U.S. had a plan on the books under former President Joe Biden, it’s unlikely to move forward under President Donald Trump.

Slow transition needs to shift gears

“This report lays bare a frightening gap between what governments have promised and what is needed to protect people and planet,” said Melanie Robinson from the World Resources Institute.

“While the transition to a low-carbon economy is underway, it’s clear that countries need to shift from a jog to an all-out sprint.”

Some good news about emissions

Despite the gaps, the 64 NDCs that were analyzed offer some positive signals. If all those plans are followed through, emissions from those countries will peak before 2030 and fall sharply after 2035. Most of them would hit net-zero emissions by 2050.

That’s progress. And for the first time, most of the climate plans touch every sector of the economy – not just power and transportation, but agriculture, manufacturing, and more.

The climate goals are also more detailed and include plans for things like financing, technology sharing, and recovery from climate-related disasters.

The U.N. didn’t include a temperature projection this year, since the sample was too small. But last year, the outlook wasn’t great.

Temperatures were expected to rise by 2.1°C to 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century – well past the safe zone.

Global emissions debate heats up

In the days leading up to COP30, more countries are expected to submit their updated plans. South Africa, Malaysia, and Indonesia have already handed theirs in over the past week.

The summit in Belém, Brazil, on November 6 and 7, will be a major test of how serious the world’s governments really are.

One of the biggest fights will be over how to close the gap to 1.5°C. The European Union and other climate-forward countries want stronger action. Others, like Saudi Arabia and India, are pushing back.

Time is short, the stakes are high, and the world is watching.

This article includes information from the U.N.E.P. Emmissions Gap Report of 2025.

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