Jaguars offer a glimpse of survival in a changing world

After flames tore across the Brazilian Pantanal in 2020, destroying over 11 million acres of forest and wetland, most would expect a drop in wildlife. But something strange happened in one remote stretch of this vast landscape – jaguars didn’t just survive. More showed up.

This patch of wetland, a 36,700-acre floodplain deep in the northern Pantanal, already held the highest concentration of jaguars ever recorded anywhere. Then came the fires. 

As smoke settled and camera traps kept rolling, researchers were stunned to find not only that local jaguars stuck around, but their numbers actually grew. New jaguars had moved in.

An unlikely sanctuary emerges

There are no roads or towns here. To get to the site, the researchers traveled five hours by boat, swatting through clouds of biting insects just to check their equipment. But the isolation appears to be part of its strength.

This stretch of wetland has been studied since 2014 by a team that includes researchers from Oregon State University and their partners in Brazil. The group has learned that jaguars here are different. 

Jaguars in the Pantanal behave more like tolerant neighbors than rivals and have a surprising diet: they mainly hunt fish and caiman, the small alligator-like reptiles common in the area. This means less competition over land animals and fewer territorial disputes.

This behavior may help explain why the area could absorb so many newcomers without descending into chaos.

More than just jaguar survival

“Finding even more jaguars and other mammals in the study area following the 2020 wildfire and extreme drought suggests that it may serve as a climate refuge, buffering the effects of extreme climate events,” said Charlotte Eriksson, a post-doctoral scholar who has worked on the project for years.

To understand the full picture, the researchers examined footage from camera traps before, during, and after the fire. They also collected nearly 175 scat samples to analyze what the jaguars were eating. The results showed a striking pattern.

Jaguars that were living in the area before the fires continued to appear on camera afterward at about the same rate. They hadn’t fled or died out. 

Instead, their numbers grew with the arrival of migrant jaguars – some possibly pushed out of their home territories by the fires or drought elsewhere. New cubs were also born in the area within a year of the disaster, further boosting the population.

A surprising level of resilience 

The kind of resilience seen in the Pantanal is rare for big cats. Typically, large carnivores are solitary and territorial. Seeing them so concentrated, and so tolerant of one another, is highly unusual. 

According to Eriksson, seeing a jaguar that often on camera would be similar to most frequently seeing a cougar or mountain lion on cameras in North America instead of deer.

Eriksson said that whenever she got off the boat, she would see jaguar tracks. One of her cameras recorded a jaguar just seven minutes after she set it up.

“I have never been to a place where the presence of a large carnivore is so obvious,” said Eriksson.

Beyond jaguar survival

The study didn’t just focus on jaguar survival. The researchers were also curious about how other mammals responded to the fire and prolonged drought. 

The team found that the richness and abundance of mammals increased over time. But here’s the twist: this trend started in 2018 – two years before the fires. That suggests drought, not fire, may have been the main factor driving changes in wildlife numbers. 

Species seemed to move in or flourish as water patterns shifted, not necessarily in direct response to the flames. There also wasn’t a clear difference between burned and unburned camera sites in terms of species richness.

Jaguar survival after the fires

Still, fire did have some short-term effects. Right after the blaze, jaguar activity dropped, likely due to disturbance and smoke. But it rebounded quickly. Over time, the population didn’t just recover – it grew.

And through all this, the jaguars stuck to their unusual diet. Despite more mammals being around, they kept hunting aquatic prey, especially fish and caiman. 

The researchers noted that their preference for wetland prey likely eases pressure on land animals, allowing more species to coexist in this space.

A fragile edge of the world

The Pantanal is the world’s largest tropical wetland, but that doesn’t mean it’s invincible. Even in protected zones like this one, climate pressures are mounting. 

Extreme drought, record heat, and increased human activity all helped fuel the 2020 fires. The devastating outbreak was responsible for the estimated loss of 17 million vertebrates.

The study highlights how some landscapes – especially those with water, rich habitat, and limited human interference – may serve as essential climate refuges. These are places where animals can ride out the worst of a warming world.

But that doesn’t mean they’re safe. The researchers warned against assuming that what works here will work everywhere. 

The Pantanal has unique protections and geography that make it special. Without careful planning and proactive fire management, even this rare refuge could be at risk.

The research is published in the journal Global Change Biology.

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